Daily Financial Breakfast 31 October 2026: $6.3 Billion Hack Reported by Binance as Fed’s Logan Calls for Two Further Rate Hikes

$77,000 Bitcoin: Today’s Key Market News

• At least two more quarter-point rate increases were urged by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Other Fed officials favoured a gradual approach.
• Following Binance’s report of a $6.3 billion hack, Bitcoin dropped towards $77,000, its lowest level in six weeks.
• An 8–1 vote left the Bank of Japan’s policy rate at 1.25%. Its fiscal 2027 core inflation forecast increased from 2.4% to 2.6%.
• With the US dollar and Treasury yields edging up, gold slid to a year-to-date low of $3,880.
• October brought no change to ECB rates. Lagarde said the policy direction remained clear unless new information materially altered the picture.

Market Performance and Policy Updates

Currency Markets

Around 102.00 marked the U.S. Dollar Index’s weekly close. That was below the weekly peak near 102.50 but ended two consecutive weeks of declines. On Friday, EUR/USD pulled back from an intraday peak of 1.1214 to trade around 1.1140.

Federal Reserve Policy

Two More Quarter-Point Fed Increases: Logan’s Minimum Call

On Friday, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan called for “at least two more quarter-point rate hikes”. She said skipping an increase “doesn’t change policy destination,” while arguing that gradual adjustments lower the risk of a sharp deterioration in the economy.

A gradual approach also drew support from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. In separate remarks, he said the central bank needed to increase rates “again soon,”.

The pace of adjustment, rather than its direction, was the question for Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Speaking to SiriusXM Business Briefing, he called the policy direction “straightforward” and a gradual approach “a good way to go”. He also said businesses had reported more widespread cost pressures.

Cryptocurrency Markets

$77,000 Bitcoin: Six-Week Low Follows Binance’s $6.3 Billion Hack Report

Selling across the wider cryptocurrency market pushed Bitcoin towards $77,000 on Friday, its lowest point in six weeks. The fall came after Binance reported a $6.3 billion hack.

Japan’s Policy Outlook

1.25% BoJ Rate Hold Accompanies Inflation Overshoot Warning

An 8–1 decision kept the Bank of Japan’s short-term policy rate at 1.25%. The dissenting vote came from board member Takata, who favoured raising it to 1.5%. Governor Kazuo Ueda said policy adjustments would continue as needed.

Although financial conditions remained accommodative and short-term real interest rates stayed low, the BoJ said underlying inflation was now broadly consistent with its 2% target. The fiscal 2027 core CPI forecast rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, while the fiscal 2028 projection remained at 2.0%. GDP growth forecasts were revised to 0.7% for both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027.

The risk balance had moved away from inflation falling short of the target and towards an overshoot, policymakers said. Close monitoring was required for the Middle East conflict, stronger AI-related demand and foreign-exchange volatility, according to the bank. Demand for corporate funding was increasing, with lenders still willing to provide credit.

Rather than passively awaiting higher inflation, the BoJ would act proactively if necessary, Ueda said. He cautioned that inflation still needed to hold sustainably around 2%. Data, wages, financial conditions and the economic outlook would determine the timing and pace of policy adjustments, not a fixed timetable.

Following the decision, most major currencies lagged the yen. USD/JPY was still slightly lower ahead of the weekend, though a rebound in the US dollar helped it recoup part of its earlier decline.

Bullion Markets

$3,880 Gold Marks a Year-to-Date Low

Friday’s fall took gold to $3,880, a year-to-date low. It was the first move below $3,900 since October last year. The retreat coincided with modest gains in the US dollar and Treasury yields, weaker risk appetite and calls from Fed officials for additional rate increases.

Eurozone Monetary Policy

October ECB Rate Hold: Lagarde Maintains Meeting-by-Meeting Stance

October’s decision left the European Central Bank’s key interest rates unchanged. UOB economist Lee Sue Ann cited comments in which Lagarde reaffirmed a meeting-by-meeting approach. Unless new information materially changed the current picture, however, Lagarde said “the direction of travel is quite clear.”

Compared with the assumptions behind the ECB’s September projections, average 10-year sovereign yields were around 35 basis points higher, Lagarde noted. She also pointed to lower equity prices and increased borrowing costs for households and businesses.

Key Dates and Data Ahead

• US Manufacturing Indicators (2 November 2026): Scheduled US releases comprise the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending data.
• US Midterm Election Results (3 November 2026): The first results of the US midterm elections are scheduled to arrive.
• US JOLTS Vacancies and Factory Orders (3 November 2026): Factory orders are due alongside the US job openings report.
• US ADP Jobs and Services Indicators (4 November 2026): Scheduled US releases cover ADP employment, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI and trade data.
• Eurozone Inflation Estimate (4 November 2026): Final services PMIs for Germany and the eurozone accompany the preliminary eurozone inflation release.
• US Weekly Jobless Claims (5 November 2026): The release schedule includes weekly US initial unemployment claims and Challenger job-cut data.
• US Jobs Report and Consumer Sentiment (6 November 2026): Due releases include US nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
• Bank of England Rate Decision: In the coming week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to set Bank Rate.