0.5540: New Zealand Dollar falls to 19-month lows before NFP data release

0.5540 marks a fresh 19-month low area for NZD/USD. The pair deepens its decline as markets shun risk.
Safe-haven flows and expectations of a strong NFP release later today put the US Dollar ahead of its peers.
This week's New Zealand releases have heightened concern over an uncertain economic outlook.

0.5539 is the latest 19-month low for NZD/USD. The pair has broken below its earlier lows around 0.5560. On Friday, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is retreating sharply as risk aversion and expectations of a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today lift the US Dollar (USD) above its major peers.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A slump in global equities is driving investors towards the Greenback's safe-haven appeal. Markets fear that the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections will bring tighter regulation of the AI industry and slow plans for new data centres.

New Zealand data weakens case for further RBNZ rate rises

5.7% was New Zealand's third-quarter Unemployment Rate, up from 5.6% in the preceding quarter. Markets had forecast a fall to 5.5%, but net employment unexpectedly declined. Against the wider market backdrop, this week's domestic data has offered the Kiwi no support.

A larger-than-forecast fall in Q3 consumer inflation preceded these labour figures. That decline may have led the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep interest rates on hold last week, surprising markets and setting off a sharp reversal in the NZD.

Further reasons to delay additional monetary tightening could emerge for the RBNZ, ultimately weighing on the Kiwi, Rabobank analysts indicate. They note that “despite some strong green shoots for New Zealand in Q1 2026, this was ahead of the headwinds caused by the Iran war,” highlighting the constraints on further tightening.

By contrast, the narrative of US economic exceptionalism continues to underpin the US Dollar. Last week's US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth exceeded market forecasts. Labour releases over recent days have also raised expectations that October's Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for later today, could deliver an upside surprise.

For ING analysts, a "decent jobs number today will confirm the Fed's understanding that the US jobs market is 'solid'". They add that this "could provide some support to short-dated rates and the Dollar."

Economic Release

Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls measures jobs created across US non-agricultural businesses during the preceding month. Monthly payroll changes can fluctuate sharply, and substantial revisions can generate further volatility in the foreign exchange market. A stronger reading is generally considered positive for the US Dollar (USD), while a weaker one is considered negative. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate carry as much relevance as the headline number. The market response therefore reflects investors' assessment of the full set of data in the BLS report.

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Next publication: Fri 6 November 2026 13:30

Release schedule: Every month

Consensus forecast: 65K

Prior reading: 29K

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Jobs Data: Why Traders Watch

The monthly US jobs report is regarded as the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Published on the first Friday after the reporting month, it tracks changes in employment that closely correlate with the economy’s overall performance and draw scrutiny from policymakers. As full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates, labour market developments inform its policy decisions, with consequences for currencies. Several leading indicators help shape forecasts, yet Nonfarm Payrolls frequently surprise markets and generate significant volatility. A reading above consensus generally supports the USD.

Economic Data in Focus

Unemployment Rate Explained

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Unemployment Rate measures the share of the total civilian labour force without paid work but actively looking for a job. Economies in recession typically record a higher rate than those experiencing growth. A fall is generally viewed as positive for the US Dollar (USD), whereas a rise is considered negative. On its own, however, the rate usually cannot establish the direction of the next market move. That also depends on the headline Nonfarm Payroll figure and the other data contained in the BLS report.

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Next publication: Fri 6 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Every month

Consensus forecast: 4.2%

Prior reading: 4.2%

Data source: