Dogecoin Price Forecast: Diverging whale activity puts DOGE at risk of further losses

• $0.075 is Dogecoin’s approximate trading level on Monday. The meme coin has recorded five straight weeks of losses.
• Smaller whale wallets are adding DOGE as large whales sell, according to Santiment data.
• Further losses remain a risk for DOGE as on-chain indicators weaken and the technical picture deteriorates.

$0.075 is the approximate level for Dogecoin (DOGE) on Monday. The token has declined for five successive weeks since the end of September. Whale behaviour is split, Santiment data indicates: large holders are trimming positions, but smaller whale wallets are adding tokens. With on-chain indicators softening and the technical picture worsening, DOGE may remain exposed to additional losses.

Whale buying and selling diverge

Mixed whale sentiment emerges from Santiment’s Supply Distribution data. Since Thursday, wallets with 10 million to 100 million tokens (blue line) have sold 120 million DOGE tokens. Over the same period, a combined 100 million DOGE tokens have been accumulated by whales holding 100,000 to 1 million (red line) and 1 million to 10 million (yellow line), even as the price declined.

The split points to reduced exposure among large whales, in contrast to dip-buying by smaller whale groups. Further selling by large wallets could put additional near-term pressure on the dog-themed meme coin.

On-chain indicators signal bearish sentiment

A bearish picture for Dogecoin emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and heating conditions are evident in both DOGE’s spot and futures markets, with sellers dominant across the two. Together, these signals indicate a cautious, bearish tilt among meme coin traders.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Key support zones give way

At $0.076 on Monday, Dogecoin continues to retreat below all its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the near-term bias bearish. Overhead supply is layered across the 50-day EMA at $0.082, the 100-day EMA at $0.083 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090. Rebound attempts also remain constrained by the descending resistance trendline, which last interacted with price around $0.079.

Buying interest appears subdued rather than indicative of a decisive reversal. Momentum is still weak: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the mid-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is broadly flat around the zero line.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near $0.079 in the broken trendline area. The next hurdles are the 50-day EMA at $0.082 and the 100-day EMA at $0.083, where a rebound would likely attract selling.

A wider resistance ceiling is formed by the horizontal barrier at $0.088 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090. Beyond them lies a more distant resistance level of $0.1027.

For a deeper decline, the next major support is the horizontal floor near $0.068, where dip-buyers could emerge. A daily close beneath this area would leave the broader corrective phase vulnerable to further losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)