Below 178.00: EUR/JPY Price Forecast Shows Losses Persisting Despite Mildly Positive Momentum

177.08, the nine-day EMA, may provide the first support test for EUR/JPY.
At around 53, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to modestly positive momentum.
Near 178.50, the descending channel’s upper boundary marks the first resistance level.

EUR/JPY trades around 177.90. The cross is retreating during Thursday’s European session after three days of advances. On the daily chart, it continues to trade inside a descending channel, suggesting that the prevailing bias remains bearish.

With the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) providing support and the 50-day EMA capping gains, EUR/JPY remains between nearby dynamic levels. This leaves the broader tone neutral for now and restricts further upside. A reading of around 53 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals modestly positive momentum. Buyers therefore appear to retain some control as long as the cross holds above its shorter-term EMA.

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At 177.08, the nine-day EMA may offer EUR/JPY its first support, ahead of the 12-month low of 175.07 recorded on 30 October. The descending channel’s lower boundary, around 174.20, provides the next support level. Should the cross break beneath the channel, the area surrounding the 15-month low of 169.72 would come into view.

Near 178.50, the descending channel’s upper boundary may be the first resistance EUR/JPY tests on the upside. Beyond that lies the 50-day EMA at 178.69. Clearing this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move towards the area around the all-time high of 187.95 set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Technical Chart

Two-month lows for Euro and US inflation swaps

A sharp repricing of market-based expectations accompanied the shift in spot inflation data, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. They note that this “led to a huge decline in inflation expectations, with the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-25.9bps) down to a two-month low of 3.10%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (-24.9bps) hit a two-month low of 2.16%.” In their view, the simultaneous fall in Euro and US 1-year inflation swaps highlights the speed at which near-term price pressures are being revised down on both sides of the Atlantic.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Exchange Rates Today

Against the listed major currencies, the Euro’s weakest performance today was against the New Zealand Dollar. The table below details today’s percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.12%	-0.02%	-0.14%	-0.06%	-0.08%	-0.24%	-0.07%
EUR	0.12%		0.10%	-0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	-0.13%	0.03%
GBP	0.02%	-0.10%		-0.15%	-0.05%	-0.06%	-0.21%	-0.06%
JPY	0.14%	0.05%	0.15%		0.08%	0.08%	-0.11%	0.06%
CAD	0.06%	-0.05%	0.05%	-0.08%		-0.00%	-0.18%	-0.02%
AUD	0.08%	-0.04%	0.06%	-0.08%	0.00%		-0.15%	-0.01%
NZD	0.24%	0.13%	0.21%	0.11%	0.18%	0.15%		0.18%
CHF	0.07%	-0.03%	0.06%	-0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.18%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, selecting the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.