177.50: EUR/JPY Price Forecast as Pair Trades Below Level After Retreat From Descending Channel Top

176.78 is the key support EUR/JPY may test at the nine-day EMA.
At 49.37, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to neutral momentum.
Near 178.00, the descending channel’s upper boundary forms the main resistance.

EUR/JPY trades near 177.40 in Wednesday’s Asian session. The cross has turned lower following two days of advances. On the daily chart, trading remains within a descending channel, suggesting that the broader bias is still bearish.

With EUR/JPY positioned between its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the near-term outlook is neutral, although upside remains somewhat constrained. Immediate support comes from the nine-period EMA just below the current price. Above it, the 50-period EMA provides the first significant resistance. Following the recent recovery from the mid-175s, momentum appears balanced: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands close to its midpoint at 49.37.

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At 176.78, the nine-day EMA may provide EUR/JPY with its first support. Next comes 175.07, the 12-month low recorded on 30 October, before the descending channel’s lower boundary around 174.30. Should the cross break below that channel, it would have scope to move towards the 15-month low of 169.72.

For EUR/JPY, the first potential upside test is the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.00. Beyond that lies the 50-day EMA at 178.70. Clearing this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move towards the all-time high of 187.95 recorded on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Technical Chart

Japan’s intervention readiness heightens Yen policy vigilance

Japan’s increasing policy vigilance is in focus for analysts at Commerzbank. They note that Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has "signaled readiness to intervene in currency markets if movements become disorderly." Her position highlights official concern over possible episodes of excessive Yen volatility. It also strengthens the view that policymakers are ready to respond if market conditions become destabilising.

Yen stabilises as Japan warns against speculative moves

A firm warning from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on recent Yen movements has drawn attention from analysts at Commerzbank: “If there are disorderly movements or excessively speculative moves, we will take action.” In the bank’s assessment, the direct threat of intervention highlights increased official sensitivity to FX volatility. It also bolsters the view that authorities are prepared to react should JPY price movements become destabilising.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performance Today

The Euro’s weakest performance today was against the Japanese Yen. Percentage changes for the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed are set out below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.32%	-0.26%	-0.49%	-0.24%	-0.17%	0.26%	-0.47%
EUR	0.32%		0.06%	-0.16%	0.06%	0.14%	0.57%	-0.15%
GBP	0.26%	-0.06%		-0.23%	0.02%	0.10%	0.51%	-0.21%
JPY	0.49%	0.16%	0.23%		0.24%	0.31%	0.72%	0.00%
CAD	0.24%	-0.06%	-0.02%	-0.24%		0.07%	0.49%	-0.23%
AUD	0.17%	-0.14%	-0.10%	-0.31%	-0.07%		0.41%	-0.30%
NZD	-0.26%	-0.57%	-0.51%	-0.72%	-0.49%	-0.41%		-0.71%
CHF	0.47%	0.15%	0.21%	-0.01%	0.23%	0.30%	0.71%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.