1.1270 range-top resistance: EUR/USD price forecast as bulls await breakout

EUR/USD retains an upward bias for a second consecutive day. Broad USD weakness provides support.
Elevated Eurozone CPI reinforced expectations of an ECB rate hike, giving the Euro and EUR/USD further support.
Further upside requires confirmation from a break above the trading range established over the past month.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1265. During Thursday’s Asian session, the pair is advancing for a second consecutive day, holding near the almost one-week high reached on Wednesday.

At its lowest since late September, the US Dollar (USD) is under pressure after a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections fuelled concerns over fiscal gridlock. Such a deadlock could constrain government spending and slow economic growth. Meanwhile, expectations that the Iran war could end are depressing crude oil prices. Easing inflation concerns have consequently driven US bond yields lower again. These factors outweigh expectations of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, keeping the dollar under pressure and, in turn, providing apparent support for EUR/USD.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

At 4.0% in October, Eurozone annual headline inflation reached a three-year high, according to Wednesday’s release. The figures strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December. This supports the single currency and adds to the positive tone in EUR/USD. Still, mounting French debt and political deadlock could deter Euro bulls from taking aggressive positions, potentially limiting the pair’s upside.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD remains above its 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Buyers are waiting for a break above resistance at 1.1270, the upper boundary of the range in place for the past month. Near-term momentum signals remain favourable: the Relative Strength Index sits in bullish territory just short of overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains positive. Together, these indicators suggest buyers retain control.

A rejection near that resistance, however, would indicate weakening bullish momentum and pull EUR/USD below 1.1200. Sustained trading beneath that level could bring the range floor around 1.1120-1.1110 into focus. A decisive break below this zone would provide a fresh bearish trigger, opening the way for the established downtrend of the past two months or so to extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

4-hour chart: EUR/USD technical picture

US Dollar: Today’s Currency Performance

Against the Australian Dollar, the US Dollar recorded its strongest performance today. The table below details today’s percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.31%	-0.16%	-0.36%	-0.07%	-0.06%	-0.44%	-0.38%
EUR	0.31%		0.14%	-0.05%	0.25%	0.23%	-0.14%	-0.09%
GBP	0.16%	-0.14%		-0.19%	0.10%	0.10%	-0.27%	-0.23%
JPY	0.36%	0.05%	0.19%		0.27%	0.30%	-0.09%	-0.03%
CAD	0.07%	-0.25%	-0.10%	-0.27%		0.03%	-0.35%	-0.30%
AUD	0.06%	-0.23%	-0.10%	-0.30%	-0.03%		-0.36%	-0.32%
NZD	0.44%	0.14%	0.27%	0.09%	0.35%	0.36%		0.08%
CHF	0.38%	0.09%	0.23%	0.03%	0.30%	0.32%	-0.08%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.