Lower oil prices, German manufacturing momentum: Euro holds steady against Swiss Franc

Lower oil prices after the US midterm election results are easing energy pressures, potentially supporting the Euro.
A recovery in German factory orders, alongside hawkish ECB comments on rate increases, supports the EUR outlook.
Unexpectedly higher inflation boosts the Swiss Franc, potentially capping gains in EUR/CHF.

EUR/CHF trades near 0.9170. The cross is flat in Thursday’s European session, having recouped its intraday losses. Cheaper crude oil is supporting the Euro (EUR) and may give the pair upward momentum. A Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections drove oil prices lower as expectations grew that the Trump administration would face greater pressure to end the conflict with Iran. President Donald Trump attributed Republican election losses largely to the war and higher petrol prices. He also signalled that there were no immediate plans to intensify military strikes.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

September’s German Factory Orders increased by 3.3% year on year, compared with a revised 3.2% rise in the prior month. The data point to renewed momentum in the region’s largest economy and may lend further support to the Euro. Orders for German-manufactured goods recovered by 4.4% month on month after August’s sharp 10.1% contraction. The rebound nevertheless missed the 4.8% growth forecast.

Hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials also supported the Euro. Officials suggested that further interest rate increases may be necessary to curb inflation and avert a wage-price spiral.

An unexpected acceleration in Swiss annual inflation to 1.5% in October is strengthening the Swiss Franc (CHF), leaving EUR/CHF exposed to downside risks. The inflation reading raises questions over whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) can refrain from tightening monetary policy through 2027.

EUR/CHF under pressure as hawkish SNB shift renews Franc demand

For ING analysts, a more hawkish policy stance at the SNB is “quite a clean positive for the Swiss franc,” with past intervention still relevant: “traders will remember 2023, when the SNB actively drove the franc stronger and sold FX as part of its tightening toolkit.” In this context, the analysts “expect to see even more interest in the Swiss franc over the coming months, with downside risks to EUR/CHF forecasts.”

Euro Performance Today

Against the British Pound, the Euro recorded its strongest performance today. The table sets out today’s percentage moves in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.10%	0.00%	-0.13%	-0.07%	-0.06%	-0.29%	-0.11%
EUR	0.10%		0.11%	-0.05%	0.03%	0.03%	-0.18%	-0.02%
GBP	-0.01%	-0.11%		-0.17%	-0.08%	-0.07%	-0.29%	-0.12%
JPY	0.13%	0.05%	0.17%		0.06%	0.07%	-0.18%	0.01%
CAD	0.07%	-0.03%	0.08%	-0.06%		0.01%	-0.22%	-0.05%
AUD	0.06%	-0.03%	0.07%	-0.07%	-0.01%		-0.21%	-0.05%
NZD	0.29%	0.18%	0.29%	0.18%	0.22%	0.21%		0.20%
CHF	0.11%	0.02%	0.12%	-0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	-0.20%

To read the heat map of percentage movements between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, start with the Euro on the left and follow its row across to the US Dollar column. The figure at that intersection gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).