EUR/CAD retreats as higher crude oil prices support Canadian Dollar against Euro

Energy supply concerns lift oil prices and the Canadian Dollar, pushing EUR/CAD lower.
Crude prices surge as drone strikes hit Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oil field and Middle East tensions escalate.
High energy prices and concerns over French debt are weighing on sentiment and driving the Euro's latest retreat, according to Danske Bank.

EUR/CAD trades near 1.5750 in Thursday's European session. The cross is falling for a third consecutive day as a sharp rise in crude prices strengthens the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). A drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field killed two people, sending energy prices higher. The incident heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions and revived concerns about disruptions to global supply.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Adding to regional tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on the United States to lift its naval blockade and show a genuine commitment to resolving the conflict through diplomacy. Tehran is ready to resume negotiations, he said, if Washington provides concrete evidence of a sincere effort to achieve a permanent and equitable end to the conflict.

In Eastern Europe, a series of large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks on critical Russian oil infrastructure has further escalated tensions. The campaign demonstrates Kyiv's clear intention to disrupt Moscow's planned increase in diesel exports, arranged under a recent agreement between Presidents Trump and Putin.

Sentiment has been the main driver of the Euro's latest decline, according to strategists at Danske Bank. They stress that “the decline in the single currency is driven by the combination of high energy prices and EUR-pessimism on the back of French debt worries.” These pressures have deepened existing caution towards the single currency, they note. Investors remain reluctant to increase Euro exposure even without a clear directional catalyst from broader markets.

Three-pronged ECB response in focus as markets tighten Eurozone conditions

A sell-off in Eurozone bonds linked to French fiscal concerns is effectively tightening financial conditions, shifting responsibility back to policymakers, ING economists argue. The bank states that “given the challenges of justifying the activation of TPI at present, we expect the ECB to adopt a three-pronged approach to address the French crisis,” bringing together more dovish interest-rate communication, changes to balance sheet plans and, where necessary, targeted deployment of existing backstop tools.

Euro Performance Today

Against the Japanese Yen, the Euro recorded its weakest performance today. The table below presents the Euro's (EUR) percentage moves against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.08%	-0.15%	-0.69%	-0.20%	0.10%	0.12%	-0.48%
EUR	0.08%		-0.08%	-0.62%	-0.16%	0.21%	0.22%	-0.42%
GBP	0.15%	0.08%		-0.53%	-0.08%	0.27%	0.29%	-0.33%
JPY	0.69%	0.62%	0.53%		0.47%	0.78%	0.77%	0.20%
CAD	0.20%	0.16%	0.08%	-0.47%		0.32%	0.34%	-0.26%
AUD	-0.10%	-0.21%	-0.27%	-0.78%	-0.32%		-0.00%	-0.58%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.22%	-0.29%	-0.77%	-0.34%	0.00%		-0.56%
CHF	0.48%	0.42%	0.33%	-0.20%	0.26%	0.58%	0.56%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar, for instance, gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.