Tight EU storage heightens winter volatility risk for natural gas – ING

TTF settled near EUR104/MWh on Friday. ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight the sharp rise in European natural gas prices late last week, followed by a slight retreat. With EU inventories already falling from a peak just below 75%, colder-than-usual conditions in Northwest Europe could quicken storage withdrawals. The analysts caution that a tight gas balance over winter could sustain high price volatility, giving weather an increasingly important role in driving the market.

EUR104/MWh: Cold weather supports TTF

"European gas prices saw significant strength at the end of last week, with TTF settling more than 6% higher on Friday, near EUR104/MWh. Prices eased slightly in early morning trading today."

"Weather forecasts for NW Europe show colder-than-usual weather this week, leading to potentially large storage draws. EU gas storage peaked at just under 75% last Tuesday and has been edging lower since, suggesting the heating season is now underway."

"With a tight balance through the winter, the market is likely to remain extremely volatile, and weather will prove to be even more important than usual."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)