$1.30 breached: Ripple Price Forecast as XRP sellers strengthen their grip

XRP retreats below $1.30. Persistent losses across the wider cryptocurrency market accompany the correction.
Perpetual futures open interest climbs to 2.21 billion XRP as retail demand strengthens, while spot ETF activity remains subdued.
Overhead moving averages and the SuperTrend line leave XRP’s technical structure weak.

$1.30 remains above Ripple (XRP) on Tuesday. A deteriorating technical structure is weighing on the token, while bearish conditions persist across the wider crypto market before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) October 28 monetary policy decision. Elevated United States (US) inflation, confirmed by last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, has cast doubt on the more likely scenario of rates staying within the 3.75-4.00% range.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A 25 basis point Fed rate increase is expected by just 17% of interest rate traders. The proportion anticipating a December hike, however, is considerably higher.

In an emailed analysis, Crypto Finance said: “Markets currently assign approximately an 85% probability to unchanged rates at the 28 October meeting, although expectations for another rate hike in December remain elevated,”

2.21 billion XRP in derivatives as ETF demand weakens

Ahead of the Fed decision, traders are reviewing their positions and overall investor activity remains subdued. A modest improvement in retail demand is evident in derivatives: perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averaged 2.21 billion XRP on Tuesday, compared with 2.16 billion XRP a day earlier.

Despite recovering from October lows of 2.12 billion XRP, OI is still substantially below September highs of 2.46 billion XRP and August highs of 2.77 billion XRP.

Institutional activity was subdued on Monday after XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of $105,000 on Thursday and $2.5 million on Friday. The longer-term outlook nevertheless remains constructive. According to SoSoValue, cumulative inflows stand at $1.8 billion, with net assets of $1.5 billion providing support.

$1.30 remains out of reach: XRP technical downside risks

Below $1.30, XRP continues to retreat beneath all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the near-term outlook bearish. The 100-day EMA stands overhead at $1.34, while the 50-day and 200-day EMAs converge around $1.38. These successive layers of trend resistance suggest that recent recoveries are being capped.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 35, just above oversold territory, underscores fragile momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also remains negative. Together, the indicators suggest that selling pressure continues, even as the sell-off loses some pace.

The 100-day EMA at $1.34 presents the first resistance hurdle. Beyond it, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs form a more concentrated barrier around $1.38. A further recovery target is the SuperTrend line at $1.46, which price would need to regain to alleviate the broader bearish structure. The current indicators identify no clear structural support below $1.30. Until buyers lift the pair above the cluster of daily EMAs, further losses remain a risk.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Crypto ETFs: key questions

How does an ETF work?

Investors use an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) to obtain exposure to a particular asset. An ETF is an investment vehicle or index that follows the price of an underlying asset, but its scope can also extend to a group of assets and sectors rather than a single holding. A Bitcoin ETF, for instance, follows Bitcoin’s price.

Have Bitcoin futures ETFs received approval?

Yes. In October 2021, the US Securities & Exchange Commission approved the first US Bitcoin futures ETF. Seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have received approval in total, while more than 20 await regulatory permission. Over the last few years, the SEC has delayed crypto-related futures ETFs because, it says, the cryptocurrency industry is new and vulnerable to manipulation.

Have spot Bitcoin ETFs been authorised?

Yes. Several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds received SEC approval for listing and trading in January 2024. This opened access for institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the leading cryptocurrency. The industry welcomed the decision as a game changer.

What benefits and drawbacks do crypto ETFs offer?

Exposure to a cryptocurrency without owning it is the chief benefit of crypto ETFs, reducing the risks and costs of holding the asset directly. Investors also face a less demanding learning curve and benefit from greater security, as ETFs take responsibility for safeguarding the underlying holdings. The principal drawback is the absence of direct asset ownership, captured by the crypto saying “not your keys, not your coins.” Fees for active management are another disadvantage, adding to the costs associated with holding crypto. Finally, while ETFs reduce the risks of holding an asset, fluctuations in the underlying cryptocurrency’s price are still likely to feed through to the investment vehicle.