$50.00 in focus for XAG/USD bears: Silver Price Forecast as RSI moves into oversold territory

Fresh yearly lows for Silver as hawkish Fed expectations drive selling.
Below its daily SMAs, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias.
Despite an oversold RSI, MACD and ADX point to continued seller dominance.

Silver (XAG/USD) is down around 3% on Thursday. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations are deterring buyers, pushing the metal to fresh year-to-date lows. XAG/USD stands near $52.32 at the time of writing, its weakest level since November 2025.

Even a weaker US Dollar (USD) has failed to halt the slide, indicating that interest rate expectations remain the main driver of prices. As borrowing costs rise, so does the opportunity cost of holding Silver, which offers no yield.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Expectations of a December rate increase remain firmly supported by Thursday’s latest US economic releases. September’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a measure closely monitored by the Fed, advanced 0.3% MoM. At 3.1%, annual core inflation was up from 3.0% and still exceeded the Fed’s 2% target.

US growth also accelerated, with the preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate showing an annualised expansion of 3.4%. That exceeded the 3.2% forecast and the previous quarter’s 2.2%. The CME FedWatch Tool puts traders’ assessment of the probability of a December rate rise at around 80%.

At the close of its October meeting on Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%. The central message, however, was that inflation was still elevated and the central bank remained committed to maintaining price stability.

Technical Outlook

Trading well beneath its key daily moving averages, XAG/USD remains under sellers’ control. Near 28, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates oversold conditions, leaving scope for a short-term rebound. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still negative. An Average Directional Index (ADX) reading near 37 also points to a strong downtrend.

Any rebound faces initial horizontal resistance near $55.00, then the former consolidation area around $60.00. Beyond that, the 100-day SMA at $61.73 and 50-day SMA at $62.11 form a broader resistance band. Higher still, the 200-day SMA at $70.63 represents a significant obstacle to a sustained recovery.

Should the sell-off extend, the psychological $50.00 threshold would become the key support to watch. A clear break beneath that level could pave the way for further losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Today's US Dollar Performance

Against the major currencies listed below, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance today versus the Australian Dollar. The table details the dollar’s percentage changes against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.15%	-0.34%	0.02%	-0.16%	0.24%	-0.11%	-0.26%
EUR	0.15%		-0.19%	0.18%	0.02%	0.40%	0.03%	-0.12%
GBP	0.34%	0.19%		0.36%	0.16%	0.58%	0.20%	0.07%
JPY	-0.02%	-0.18%	-0.36%		-0.19%	0.22%	-0.16%	-0.29%
CAD	0.16%	-0.02%	-0.16%	0.19%		0.41%	0.06%	-0.09%
AUD	-0.24%	-0.40%	-0.58%	-0.22%	-0.41%		-0.35%	-0.51%
NZD	0.11%	-0.03%	-0.20%	0.16%	-0.06%	0.35%		-0.12%
CHF	0.26%	0.12%	-0.07%	0.29%	0.09%	0.51%	0.12%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.