Taiwan Dollar: Foreign inflows remain essential for recovery – OCBC

Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness continues despite robust exports. OCBC’s Christopher Wong points to foreign equity outflows and unsettled sentiment towards global technology stocks as the dominant drivers of USD/TWD. His near-term stance remains cautious: a more sustained TWD recovery requires improved equity flows. He also highlights technically overbought conditions, with nearby support and resistance levels shaping price action.

TWD Under Pressure as Foreign Equity Outflows Persist

"TWD remained under pressure last week as foreign equity selling continued (Week-to-date USD7.6bn) amid unsettled global technology sentiment."

"The CBC attributed the currency’s weakness to substantial foreign fund outflows and dividendrelated remittances, while reiterating its willingness to maintain orderly FX conditions. This contrasted with strong September export orders, which surged 62.4% YoY, highlighting the disconnect between Taiwan’s resilient external sector and portfolio flows."

"We remain cautious on TWD near term. While CBC smoothing may help contain excessive volatility, sustained recovery would likely require foreign equity selling to moderate."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI turned lower from overbought conditions. We continue to keep a lookout for signs of technical turnaround."

"Support at 32.35 (23.6% fibo), 32.13 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 32.70 (recent high)"

(An editor reviewed this article, which was produced with assistance from an Artificial Intelligence tool. Learn more.)