US Midterm Elections: US Dollar under pressure as Democrats secure early wins

Two years of congressional control are at stake. Americans cast their ballots in Tuesday’s midterm elections to decide who controls Congress during the remainder of US President Donald Trump’s term.

Democrats have secured 124 seats and Republicans 77, live data from Decision Desk HQ show. Results have been called for 201 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives.

Tuesday brought a significant Democratic gain in North Carolina, where the party captured a Republican-held Senate seat. Democrats also delivered unexpectedly strong performances in several Republican-leaning House districts in Florida.

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Media projections showed former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper winning comfortably in North Carolina against Republican candidate Michael Whatley, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement. Cooper’s victory flipped a Senate seat previously held by Republicans.

A second US Senate term in Georgia has been secured by Democrat Jon Ossoff, who defeated Trump-backed challenger Mike Collins. For Democrats seeking to retake the Senate, Georgia remains a crucial battleground.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "Given the Democrats are favoured right now, our expectation is that they will take control of both the House and the Senate," adding: "If that pans out, the US dollar could sell off further from here, because a Democratic sweep would limit government spending over Trump's term."

0.52% decline in DXY as Treasury yields fall

Selling pressure is weighing on the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the US midterm election results. At the time of writing, the DXY stands at 101.32, down 0.52% on the day. US Treasury yields have also declined across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield fell five basis points (bps) to 4.566%, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped six bps to 4.90%.

US Dollar Performance Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its largest decline against the Swiss Franc today. The table presents today’s percentage changes for each pair.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.53%	-0.43%	-0.72%	-0.33%	-0.05%	0.10%	-0.86%
EUR	0.53%		0.11%	-0.20%	0.19%	0.47%	0.63%	-0.31%
GBP	0.43%	-0.11%		-0.30%	0.11%	0.38%	0.52%	-0.44%
JPY	0.72%	0.20%	0.30%		0.40%	0.68%	0.82%	-0.14%
CAD	0.33%	-0.19%	-0.11%	-0.40%		0.27%	0.42%	-0.54%
AUD	0.05%	-0.47%	-0.38%	-0.68%	-0.27%		0.15%	-0.80%
NZD	-0.10%	-0.63%	-0.52%	-0.82%	-0.42%	-0.15%		-0.95%
CHF	0.86%	0.31%	0.44%	0.14%	0.54%	0.80%	0.95%

Percentage moves between major currencies appear in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left, for instance, and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).

US midterm elections: key questions answered

US midterms: the seats being contested

Held at the midpoint of a president’s four-year term, US midterms are federal elections in which voters elect all 435 House of Representatives members and around one-third of the Senate. In many states, ballots also include governors and other state and local officials.{{HT00229}}

2026 midterms: election date and voting

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 is Election Day. Under federal law, the vote falls on the Tuesday following November’s first Monday. Many states already have early voting and postal voting under way.

US midterms: congressional control at stake

Control of both congressional chambers for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term is determined by these elections. Setting the legislative agenda and appointing committee leaders fall to the majority party. In the Senate, that party also controls the confirmation of judges and senior officials.

2026 midterms: no presidential vote

The presidency is not on the ballot. Presidential elections take place every four years, with the next scheduled for November 2028. Often treated as a referendum on the incumbent president’s party, midterms have historically tended to cost that party House seats.

2026 midterms: potential US dollar impact

A limited, temporary US Dollar response, rather than a sustained trend, is what most analysts anticipate. Split control of Congress is widely regarded as the base case and is already partly reflected in prices. The results may have a more pronounced effect on Treasury yields. If an outcome increases expectations of fiscal stimulus, yields and the US Dollar tend to rise. Conversely, a legislative impasse that constrains fresh spending can weigh on both. Funding disputes or debt-ceiling stand-offs can also briefly support the Dollar through safe-haven demand. Over six to twelve months, economic growth and Federal Reserve policy carry more weight than the election result.

19 out of 19: stocks’ post-midterm record

Weakness before US midterms has historically given way to strength afterwards in US equities. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen over the 12 months following every midterm election: 19 out of 19, averaging a gain of about 15%. Analysts attribute this pattern to reduced uncertainty after the outcome becomes clear. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists caution that elevated valuations in 2026 could challenge that run.

Divided Congress: market benefits and risks

With legislative deadlock reducing the likelihood of broad changes to taxation, spending and regulation, markets have often responded favourably to divided government. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically performed well in the years after midterms that leave Congress under split control. However, funding deadlines, debt-ceiling disputes and congressional investigations can generate short-term volatility.