0.8270 rejection puts key support at 0.8225 at risk: USD/CHF Price Forecast

0.8250 gives way as USD/CHF reverses Monday's gains on Tuesday.
Expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting weigh on the US Dollar.
0.8225 is the confirmation threshold for a double top around 0.8390 if support breaks.

USD/CHF falls to session lows near 0.8440. Having met resistance at 0.8270, the pair is reversing Monday's advance on Tuesday. Expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause next week weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF), alongside fears of a potential AI bubble. Sellers are targeting the lower boundary of the monthly trading range around 0.8225.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

An 82% probability of unchanged rates next week is indicated by the CME’s FedWatch Tool, compared with 42% one month ago. Investors are reducing US Dollar long positions on the assumption that the Fed will not raise rates at its October meeting, even after inflation readings exceeded expectations in recent weeks.

Growing doubts over AI-sector profitability are also weighing on the Greenback on Tuesday. MUFG analysts note that overseas investors bought “USD 942 billion of US equities in the twelve months to July,” supporting US Dollar demand in FX markets. However, the bank's experts caution that “this dynamic also leaves the USD more exposed to a reversal if sentiment towards AI deteriorates.”

Switzerland's trade surplus fell to CHF 1.309 billion in September, compared with an upwardly revised CHF 4.185 billion in August, according to figures published earlier on Tuesday. A surge in imports outweighed a smaller rise in exports. The CHF showed little response to the data.

Technical Analysis: Potential Double Top Takes Shape

At 0.8244, USD/CHF remains in a moderately bearish trend, judging by recent price movements. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 38.43. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator, however, has edged into positive territory. Together, these signals suggest selling momentum is easing, without a decisive reversal yet.

Support at 0.8225 is the next objective for sellers. This area marks the lows of 2 and 16 October and the neckline of a Double Top pattern just below 0.8400. As a formation commonly associated with trend reversals, it would strengthen sellers' conviction to challenge the 16 and 22 September lows around 0.8180. The measured objective of the Double Top lies near 0.8070, at the 9 September low.

A move above the session high of 0.8270 is needed for buyers to clear a path towards 0.8315, where former support now acts as resistance. Beyond that lies the previously noted top around 0,8390.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc: Today's Currency Performance

Against the major currencies listed below, the Swiss Franc (CHF) recorded its strongest performance against the Euro today. The table sets out its percentage changes against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.05%	-0.23%	-0.21%	-0.46%	-0.12%	-0.29%	-0.27%
EUR	-0.05%		-0.29%	-0.23%	-0.50%	-0.16%	-0.34%	-0.31%
GBP	0.23%	0.29%		0.08%	-0.21%	0.15%	-0.04%	-0.02%
JPY	0.21%	0.23%	-0.08%		-0.28%	0.08%	-0.12%	-0.08%
CAD	0.46%	0.50%	0.21%	0.28%		0.35%	0.17%	0.19%
AUD	0.12%	0.16%	-0.15%	-0.08%	-0.35%		-0.18%	-0.15%
NZD	0.29%	0.34%	0.04%	0.12%	-0.17%	0.18%		0.03%
CHF	0.27%	0.31%	0.02%	0.08%	-0.19%	0.15%	-0.03%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Swiss Franc on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CHF (base)/USD (quote).