$86.00 in focus: WTI Price Forecast as price clings to key 200-day SMA support nearby

Nearly 15% down this week, WTI Oil prices remain just above $86.
Prospects for a swift end to the war in Iran have improved following Trump's midterm election defeat.
On the technical charts, prices are barely holding support at the crucial 200-day SMA.

WTI has lost 14.25% so far this week. Oil prices are recording their steepest weekly fall in months after a landslide Democratic win in the US midterm elections raised hopes that the war against Iran could end. At the time of writing, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades at $87.50 per barrel, having tested the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near $86.00.

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Wednesday's sharp crude sell-off followed US President Donald Trump's decisive midterm election defeat. The result confirmed disapproval of Republican policies, particularly the war in Iran and the effects of the resulting energy shock.

In a Financial Times interview on Wednesday, Trump said he had no regrets about the intervention in Iran, while confirming that the US had no immediate plans to restart hostilities. Vice President JD Vance also identified the war in Iran as the main cause of the election outcome on Wednesday. His comments strengthened hopes that the government would seek a swift exit from the conflict.

Supply disruption concerns are limiting further losses in crude. Iran's Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that two oil tankers had caught fire while trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via what they described as "an unauthorised route".

$86.00 Support in Focus: WTI Technical Analysis

At $87.52, WTI US Oil sits only slightly above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Momentum has weakened markedly. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 36.5, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has moved below the Signal line. An increasingly negative histogram also indicates that the recent retreat is gathering pace, even though the broader trend remains positive.

A confirmed break below the $86.00 zone would be viewed as a trend-shift signal, intensifying downside pressure towards the late August lows around $79.30, followed by the August 3 low near $73.50. For any recovery, initial resistance lies at former support around $94.50, the November 2 low. Last week's highs above $103.67 form the next hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil: Key Questions

WTI Oil: Definition and Characteristics

West Texas Intermediate, abbreviated to WTI, is a crude oil grade traded internationally. Alongside Brent and Dubai Crude, it is one of the three main grades. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. This high-quality oil is regarded as easy to refine. Produced in the United States, WTI is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil market benchmark, with its price regularly cited by the media.

WTI Oil Prices: Main Drivers

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, whereas weaker growth can reduce it. Supply can be disrupted by political instability, conflict and sanctions, with consequences for prices. Another major influence is policy set by OPEC, the group of leading oil-producing countries. WTI Crude Oil prices also respond to the US Dollar's value because oil is mainly traded in US Dollars. A softer US Dollar can therefore make oil more affordable, while a stronger currency can have the reverse effect.

WTI Oil Prices: The Role of Inventory Data

Weekly inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence WTI Oil prices by showing shifts in supply and demand. Falling stocks can signal stronger demand and lift prices. Rising stocks, by contrast, can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two reports generally produce similar results: 75% of the time, their figures are within 1% of each other. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

WTI Oil Prices: OPEC's Influence

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing nations in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member states. These decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices. Cutting quotas can restrict supply and drive prices higher; increasing output can produce the reverse outcome. The broader OPEC+ group incorporates ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most prominent.