$100.50 breached as WTI climbs following strike on Saudi refinery

• $100.75 is within reach as WTI advances in early European trading on Wednesday.
• A missile struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery, according to Yemen’s Houthis.
• API reported a 2.031 million-barrel decline in crude oil stocks for the week ended October 23.

$100.75 is the approximate level for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in early European trading on Wednesday. The US crude oil benchmark is advancing after an attack on a Saudi Arabian refinery revived fears over supply from the major exporter.

A ballistic missile was launched on Tuesday by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis towards the Ras Tanura oil refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported. The facility is the kingdom’s largest refinery.

ING commodity strategists said markets continue to price in a higher probability of renewed escalation. They added: "Oil prices remain elevated as the market waits for greater clarity on President Trump's next move toward Iran,"

A 2.031 million-barrel draw in US crude stockpiles was recorded in the week ending October 23, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). The latest weekly decline followed a 4.93 million-barrel reduction the week before.

Later on Wednesday, traders will turn to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude oil inventories. A draw exceeding expectations points to stronger demand and could support WTI. Conversely, a larger-than-forecast build suggests weaker demand or surplus supply and might weigh on the benchmark.

Oil Upside Bias Persists as Middle East Risks and Freight Costs Weigh

TD Securities sees crude prices retaining an upward bias in the near term. Its analysts explain that “we expect crude oil will remain skewed to the upside in the near term as escalation risk ahead of Israeli elections and US midterm elections remains elevated.” The geopolitical premium in oil benchmarks is also supported by recent disruptions. The analysts note that “recent Houthi strikes have seen risk premium pricing in the market increase, while persistent tanker attacks by Iran appear to have been successful in reducing some Hormuz flows,” However, transport costs could increasingly restrain gains despite persistent geopolitical risks. TD Securities cautions that “beyond escalation in the Middle East conflict, freight rates have increasingly become the important marginal driver, with elevated landed prices for refiners potentially putting a cap on crude oil upside as weaker margins may limit refiner runs,”

100-Day SMA Underpins WTI’s Positive Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, a bullish bias remains intact for WTI US Oil, with the price well above both the 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average. Trading is pushing into the upper half of the Bollinger envelope. At roughly 62, the Relative Strength Index (14) remains positive without signalling overbought conditions. This points to continued upward pressure, although corrective pauses remain possible.

Near $103.95, the upper Bollinger band marks immediate resistance and the next significant area of potential supply for bulls. Initial downside support lies around $95.05 at the 20-day Bollinger middle band. Further protection comes from the lower Bollinger band near $86.15 and the 100-day moving average just above $85.00. Together, these levels form the broader bullish floor, provided they hold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)