EUR/USD: Break below 1.10 could deepen losses – Societe Generale

Having fallen below its 200-week moving average, EUR/USD is testing the May 2025 low as renewed Dollar strength pushes the pair towards the key 1.10 level, according to Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux.

Rates and political risks weigh on the Euro

"EUR/USD down 10 big figures since January and in trouble after erasing 200wma (1.1110)."

"Throw in the uncertainty relating to the French Presidential election next April, the succession before that at the helm of the ECB in February, the bearish seasonality that typically governs the single currency early in the new year, and you have a toxic backdrop that keeps EUR/USD on a slippery slope."

"If the Fed then seriously considers a back-to-back hike in January (provided it doesn’t deliver a jumbo 50bp in December), EUR/USD could find itself in trouble below 1.10 in early 2027, if not sooner."

"A further 3.5% decline from around current levels would take EUR/USD towards 1.0620, the long-term ascending trend line connecting the 2022 low of 0.9536 and the 2025 low of 1.0141."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Find out more.)