NZD/USD Price Forecast: Sellers target 18-month low at 0.5564

A fall of more than 1.3% on Wednesday takes NZD/USD towards 1-month lows at 0.5565.
An unexpected decision by the RBNZ to hold interest rates, rather than raise them, sent the Kiwi sharply lower.
The broader downtrend remains intact after the pair failed to build on gains above 0.5700.

A decline of more than 1.3% against the US Dollar (USD) accompanies broad-based selling of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday, following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement. Having touched two-week lows of 0.5584, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5600, while bulls continue to focus on the 18-month low of 0.5564.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

At 2.75%, the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) was left unchanged earlier on Wednesday, disappointing investors who had almost fully priced in a quarter-point increase. The decision prompted a sharp fall in the Kiwi, although it subsequently recovered some ground as Governor Anna Breman signalled further monetary tightening in December.

Attention turns next to the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. With rates widely expected to remain unchanged, investors will scrutinise Chairman Warsh’s press release for confirmation of expectations for a further increase in December.

Technical Analysis: NZD/USD Stays Under Pressure Below 0.5700

Trading at 0.5607, NZD/USD retains a bearish short-term bias below the former support zone around 0.5700. Daily momentum signals offer a mixed picture: the Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered from oversold territory but remains below 40, suggesting demand is still subdued. By contrast, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits marginally above zero, indicating tentative efforts to advance within a market that remains broadly constrained on the upside.

The low of 0.8564 recorded on 14 October is the bears’ focus. Below that, some support may emerge near 0.5530, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August advance, before the April 2026 low of 0.5485.

Over the past week, the area around 0.5700 has acted as a significant upside obstacle. It blocks a move towards the 18 September high of 0.5787, followed by the mid-August and early-September support levels between 0.5800 and 0.5820.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

New Zealand Dollar Performs Best Against British Pound Today

Today’s percentage moves in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. Its strongest performance was against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	0.16%	-0.03%	-0.07%	-0.10%	1.30%	0.10%
EUR	0.01%		0.17%	-0.02%	-0.06%	-0.09%	1.31%	0.11%
GBP	-0.16%	-0.17%		-0.17%	-0.23%	-0.26%	1.14%	-0.07%
JPY	0.03%	0.02%	0.17%		-0.05%	-0.07%	1.32%	0.12%
CAD	0.07%	0.06%	0.23%	0.05%		-0.03%	1.37%	0.18%
AUD	0.10%	0.09%	0.26%	0.07%	0.03%		1.41%	0.20%
NZD	-1.30%	-1.31%	-1.14%	-1.32%	-1.37%	-1.41%		-1.17%
CHF	-0.10%	-0.11%	0.07%	-0.12%	-0.18%	-0.20%	1.17%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read NZD (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the New Zealand Dollar on the left and follow that row across to the US Dollar; the intersecting cell gives the percentage change for the pair.