USD/CAD Price Forecast: Break below 50-day EMA brings 1.4000 support into focus

The five-month low at 1.3732 is a potential downside target for USD/CAD.
At 39, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to continued downward pressure.
At 1.4072, the 50-day EMA provides the first resistance.

Below both its 50- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), USD/CAD retains a bearish short-term outlook. The pair is trading near 1.4020 in Thursday’s European session, extending its run of declines to a sixth consecutive day.

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 and edging towards oversold territory, USD/CAD’s retreat from recent highs points to sustained selling pressure rather than an imminent reversal. This comes even as the FXS Fed Sentiment Index eases from its earlier extremes.

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A further decline could take USD/CAD towards the area around 1.3732, the five-month low reached on 21 May. Below that, support is at 1.3481, the lowest level since October 2024.

Should USD/CAD recover, its first resistance test may come at the 50-day EMA of 1.4072, ahead of the nine-day EMA at 1.4113. A move beyond both averages would support a test of 1.4299, the 18-month high reached on 14 October.

USD/CAD faces pressure as IMF forecasts point to a widening North American growth gap

The latest IMF forecasts indicate an increasing divergence in North American growth prospects, according to strategists at Societe Generale. They observe that “with the IMF’s US growth forecast revised up to 2.5% this year (while remaining at 2.1% in 2027), the North American growth gap is widening.” Although “the chart on the right shows relative Bloomberg consensus growth forecasts for 2027,” they describe the IMF’s assessment as “even less favourable for Canada,” citing “1.2% growth in Canada next year versus 2.1% in the US.” The strategists also note that “the chart on the left shows the two-year rate differential plotted against USD/CAD,” emphasising the continuing role of relative growth expectations and short-end yield spreads in shaping the Canadian Dollar’s performance against the US Dollar.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar Records Its Strongest Gain Against New Zealand Dollar Today

Today’s percentage movements in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. Its strongest performance was against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.05%	-0.09%	-0.75%	-0.21%	0.18%	0.23%	-0.59%
EUR	0.05%		-0.06%	-0.72%	-0.20%	0.23%	0.28%	-0.56%
GBP	0.09%	0.06%		-0.65%	-0.15%	0.27%	0.32%	-0.50%
JPY	0.75%	0.72%	0.65%		0.52%	0.93%	0.95%	0.15%
CAD	0.21%	0.20%	0.15%	-0.52%		0.40%	0.47%	-0.37%
AUD	-0.18%	-0.23%	-0.27%	-0.93%	-0.40%		0.04%	-0.77%
NZD	-0.23%	-0.28%	-0.32%	-0.95%	-0.47%	-0.04%		-0.79%
CHF	0.59%	0.56%	0.50%	-0.15%	0.37%	0.77%	0.79%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the Canadian Dollar on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CAD (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.