AUD/USD Price Forecast: Can bulls break above the 100-SMA hurdle as the pair holds above 0.7000?

• AUD/USD finds it difficult to extend modest Asian-session gains at the crucial 100-day SMA resistance.
• Upside in the pair remains limited as geopolitical risks and expectations of a Fed rate hike lend support to the USD.
• With Wednesday's FOMC decision approaching, expectations of a hawkish RBA continue to lend the Aussie support.

Resistance near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has again checked the AUD/USD pair's advance, prompting it to surrender some of Tuesday's modest Asian-session gains towards the one-month high reached the previous day. Nevertheless, spot prices remain above the psychological 0.7000 level. This calls for caution among bearish traders ahead of important economic releases and central bank events.

Wednesday's schedule brings Australia's monthly consumer inflation data, followed by the closely watched FOMC policy announcement. With the US Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its two-day meeting, attention is likely to centre on the policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the subsequent press conference. Thursday's US releases, comprising the Advance Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will offer further signals on the Fed's policy trajectory. The resulting outlook will help shape the US Dollar's (USD) direction and give AUD/USD a fresh catalyst.

For now, the dollar is benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and growing expectations that the US central bank will increase borrowing costs in December, as high energy prices fuel inflation concerns. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is advancing for a third consecutive day, restricting AUD/USD's gains. On the other hand, expectations of a hawkish interest-rate stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are cushioning the Aussie and limiting its decline. A decisive break below the round 0.7000 level would therefore be needed before concluding that the recent rebound from a multi-month low has lost momentum.

Technically, the broader outlook remains fragile despite slightly positive momentum signals, with spot prices constrained near the 100-day SMA and currently putting pressure on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7025. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 51 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is rising above zero, these readings suggest a tentative rebound rather than a confirmed bullish reversal as AUD/USD stays below the technical barrier mentioned above. A daily close above this resistance cluster, however, would clear a path towards the 50% retracement at 0.7065, followed by the 61.8% level at 0.7105. Further out, the 78.6% retracement at 0.7162 represents a stronger medium-term ceiling.

Should prices decline, the first support lies near 0.6976 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the structural low around 0.6895. A breach of the latter would re-establish the broader downtrend and invalidate the current improvement in momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

What does the AUD/USD daily chart indicate?