NZD/USD Price Forecast: Can Bears Reach the 18-Month Low at 0.5564?

Selling pressure pushes NZD/USD down more than 1.3% on Wednesday, towards 1-month lows at 0.5565.
A sharp fall in the Kiwi followed the RBNZ’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, defying market expectations of a hike.
With gains failing to extend beyond 0.5700, the broader downtrend remains intact.

Broad-based selling weighs on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday, with losses against the US Dollar (USD) exceeding 1.3% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement. Having touched a two-week low of 0.5584, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5600, while bulls continue to watch the 18-month low at 0.5564.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Investors had almost fully priced in a quarter-point rate increase, but the RBNZ disappointed them earlier on Wednesday by retaining its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.75%. The decision sent the Kiwi sharply lower before it recovered some ground, as Governor Anna Breman signalled further monetary tightening in December.

Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement, due at 18:00 GMT. With the bank widely expected to keep rates steady, investors will scrutinise Chairman Warsh’s press release for confirmation of expectations for another rate increase in December.

Technical Analysis: Can NZD/USD Shake Off Weakness Below 0.5700?

A former support zone near 0.5700 continues to cap NZD/USD, which is trading at 0.5607 with a bearish near-term bias. Daily momentum signals offer a mixed picture. Although the Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered from oversold levels, it remains below 40, suggesting demand is still weak. By contrast, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits marginally above zero, indicating that attempts to rise remain tentative within a broader environment of restricted upside.

The 14 October low at 0.8564 is the immediate focus for bears. Below that, some support could emerge near 0.5530, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August advance, before the April 2026 low of 0.5485.

Over the past week, the 0.5700 zone has acted as a significant upside hurdle. It blocks access to the 18 September high of 0.5787, followed by the mid-August and early-September support levels in the 0.5800 to 0.5820 range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Is the New Zealand Dollar Performing Today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recorded its strongest performance against the British Pound today. Its percentage moves against the major currencies listed are set out in the table below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	0.16%	-0.03%	-0.07%	-0.10%	1.30%	0.10%
EUR	0.01%		0.17%	-0.02%	-0.06%	-0.09%	1.31%	0.11%
GBP	-0.16%	-0.17%		-0.17%	-0.23%	-0.26%	1.14%	-0.07%
JPY	0.03%	0.02%	0.17%		-0.05%	-0.07%	1.32%	0.12%
CAD	0.07%	0.06%	0.23%	0.05%		-0.03%	1.37%	0.18%
AUD	0.10%	0.09%	0.26%	0.07%	0.03%		1.41%	0.20%
NZD	-1.30%	-1.31%	-1.14%	-1.32%	-1.37%	-1.41%		-1.17%
CHF	-0.10%	-0.11%	0.07%	-0.12%	-0.18%	-0.20%	1.17%

To read the heat map of percentage moves between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the New Zealand Dollar on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for NZD (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.