[TMGM Financial Breakfast] Silver Prices Seem Under Pressure, But It Is Not Yet Time to Go Short!

TMGM Group reports that silver’s upward trend remains intact. However, after approaching the key $60 level, prices have begun to show signs of a pullback, which intuitively reflects that the market is now in an extremely overbought condition.

Concerns about where prices may go next have not diminished, especially the risks brought about by a sharp reversal and parabolic price swings, which remain the main focus of attention at this stage.

Looking at recent trading activity, although silver prices have edged higher, the resistance at the $60 mark is obvious. That said, bull markets always climb a wall of worry. After all, similar situations have occurred many times in history: once silver prices rise rapidly, they often reverse just as quickly and turn lower.

It is worth noting that silver is currently at a historical high, and this high-level trading range has lasted for about two weeks. From a typical market-behavior perspective, if a pullback does occur, it is highly likely that buying interest will emerge in the $54–55 area. This range previously acted as a strong resistance zone. According to the “market memory effect,” once such resistance is effectively broken, it often later turns into a support area.

Conversely, if silver manages to break through the $60 level and hold above it, prices are very likely to enter a parabolic phase of appreciation. The problem, however, is that once silver exhibits this kind of extreme move, it will sooner or later trigger a series of knock-on effects. When such a move starts to get out of control, we may see a scenario in which silver prices surge while other assets weaken across the board—yet in the end, silver itself will also find it hard to escape a subsequent correction.

In essence, the current volatility pattern in the silver market is closely related to one core market reality: for many years, the notional ounces of silver on the futures market have consistently exceeded the ounces of physical silver that can actually be delivered on exchanges. Against this backdrop, a short-term pullback can actually make some investors more inclined to “buy the dip” in anticipation of participating in a potentially explosive move.

Market Commentary:

On the weekly chart, silver prices continue to trend higher, with the MACD lines and histogram expanding above the zero line. From a trading logic standpoint, now is not the ideal moment to chase this move, as there is unlikely to be any pronounced supply shortage on the silver side in the short term.