Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP and XLM recovery stalls below EMAs

• XRP trades below $1.36 on Thursday, with recovery attempts likely to remain limited as it holds below key EMAs.
• XLM slips below $0.183, giving back some gains after a modest rebound in the previous two days.
• Mixed derivatives metrics, weakening momentum indicators and heating market conditions cap recovery in both altcoins.

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) remain under pressure on Thursday as both struggle to sustain their recent recovery attempts. XRP trades below $1.36, while XLM slips beneath $0.183, as mixed derivatives metrics, weakening momentum indicators and heating market conditions suggest cautious market sentiment.

Mixed derivatives cap XRP and XLM

Derivatives data shows weakening conditions for Ripple and Stellar. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratios for XRP and XLM read 0.67 and 0.93, respectively, on Thursday, nearing the lowest level over a month. A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders bet that asset prices will fall.

However, XRP and XLM funding rates flipped positive on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, reading 0.0084% and 0.0072% on Thursday, indicating longs are paying shorts and suggesting a mild bullish outlook.

On-chain data shows bearish bias

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a bearish outlook for both altcoins. XRP’s spot and futures markets show large whale orders alongside heating conditions. In addition, the futures market shows sell-side dominance. These highlight a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among Ripple traders.

For XLM, spot shows healing conditions, while the futures market shows sell-side dominance, indicating a negative outlook among Stellar traders.

XRP technical outlook: Holds below key EMAs

XRP price trades at $1.352 on Thursday, holding below the medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 200-day EMA at $1.374 and the 50-day EMA at $1.375 acting as a tight resistance band overhead, which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite price stabilizing above the 100-day EMA at $1.337.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 tilts slightly lower, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, suggesting recovery attempts could be capped unless buyers reclaim the clustered EMAs.

On the topside, immediate resistance sits at the 200-day EMA at $1.374, followed closely by the 50-day EMA at $1.375, forming a first supply zone; a sustained break above would open the way toward the horizontal barrier at $1.540 and, beyond that, the higher resistance level near $1.900.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the current area backed by the 100-day EMA at $1.337, with further cushioning at the horizontal floor around $1.300; a daily close below $1.300 would reinforce the broader bearish tone and expose deeper losses.

XLM technical outlook: Weakening momentum indicators

XLM price trades at $0.182 on Thursday, remaining under pressure as it holds below the clustered EMAs: the 100-day EMA around $0.190, the 200-day EMA near $0.191, and the 50-day EMA close to $0.192, keeping the broader tone capped after the recent rejection from higher levels.

The RSI near 41 suggests subdued buying interest, while the MACD stays in negative territory, hinting that downside momentum remains even as it moderates.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the EMA band between roughly $0.190 and $0.192, followed by the previously broken rising trendline, now acting as resistance around $0.195, before a stronger hurdle emerges at the horizontal barrier near $0.234.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.173, with a deeper floor near $0.153, where buyers previously stepped in to arrest declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)