Bitcoin heads into US midterm elections as past sell-offs rekindle downside fears

• $78,000 remains just above Bitcoin’s price on Monday. Ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections, BTC is holding above its 200-day EMA at $76,459.
• Declines of 16% and 37% hit Bitcoin during the US midterm elections in November 2022 and 2018, respectively.
• Sustained inflows could make BTC spot ETFs an unexpected counterweight to the historical pattern of midterm-related losses.

A $6 billion hack from Binance took place just a week ago. Now Bitcoin (BTC) faces the potential impact of the US midterm elections. Congressional polls have historically hurt both the president’s party and Bitcoin. Across the last 22 midterms, the ruling party gained House seats only twice. The three most recent elections also coincided with Bitcoin’s bear-market lows. 

With the next midterms scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, the broader crypto market is asking: “Will Bitcoin extend its losses after the elections?”

US midterms: Bitcoin’s electoral-cycle curse

Corrections in Bitcoin have historically accompanied US midterm elections. Following the November 2022 vote, BTC reached its 2022 bear-market low of $15,476 in just 13 days. The 2018 and 2014 elections were followed by lows of $3,156 and $171 after 39 days and 71 days, respectively.

As FXStreet previously explained, corrections towards the end of midterm years fit Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Bitcoin halvings coincide with US presidential elections. This puts the November midterms at the centre of BTC’s four-year cycle, a point when the market has historically been nearing or reaching a cyclical bear-market bottom.

Fourth-quarter performance has also suffered during US midterm years. According to CoinGlass, November has generally been a relatively strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains of 34%. Yet the 2022 and 2018 midterms brought November declines of 16% and 36%, respectively. December losses of 3% and 6% followed, taking losses for the final quarter to 14% and 43%.

In the 2014 midterm year, by contrast, Bitcoin gained 11% in November before losing 15% in December. The final three months recorded a net loss of 17%. 

A repeat of the historical cycle could bring a steep Bitcoin correction by the end of 2026, putting the annual low of $57,800 back in reach. The shrinking interval between election day and bear-market lows, however, also points to the possibility of a rapid recovery that could limit downside risk.

Bitcoin spot ETFs: A counterweight to midterm losses

Without institutional inflows, Bitcoin’s performance around November elections has been predominantly bearish. This year could differ, however, with Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) now part of the market. 

As of October 30, Bitcoin ETFs have total net assets of $98 billion, below the July 2025 peak of $152 billion. Flows into these ETFs have been a major influence on Bitcoin’s spot price since their January 2024 launch.

Should Bitcoin spot ETFs attract inflows in November and December, those flows could cushion the impact of a shift in the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

Outlook: ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s midterm test

The midterm curse looks likely to endure in US politics. Kalshi’s midterm forecasts strongly favour the Democratic Party gaining control of both chambers of Congress. They assign a 94% probability to a Democratic majority in the House and a 74% probability in the Senate. 

For Bitcoin, however, institutional inflows will determine the bearish impact. Holding the critical 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) baseline at $76,459 would be the ultimate signal that the leading digital asset has finally escaped its midterm curse. A break below that support could send Bitcoin back to its annual low of $57,800, or lower.