Below 0.5560: NZD/USD Price Forecast Points to Further Losses

0.5620 is in focus as NZD/USD falls towards the level, with the US Dollar recouping part of its early decline.
Ahead of the US midterm elections, investors prepare for volatility.
A decline to 5.5% is expected in New Zealand’s unemployment rate for the third quarter of this year.

Around 0.5620, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is weaker against the US Dollar (USD). During Monday’s European session, the Kiwi pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar recovers part of its earlier decline. The Greenback nevertheless remains under pressure before Tuesday’s United States (US) midterm elections.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

New Zealand Dollar: Today’s Currency Performance

Against the major currencies listed below, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recorded its weakest performance versus the Swiss Franc today. The table presents its percentage changes against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.44%	-0.18%	0.25%	0.02%	0.33%	0.15%	-0.60%
EUR	0.44%		0.27%	0.67%	0.45%	0.77%	0.59%	-0.13%
GBP	0.18%	-0.27%		0.45%	0.19%	0.50%	0.33%	-0.39%
JPY	-0.25%	-0.67%	-0.45%		-0.22%	0.08%	-0.11%	-0.84%
CAD	-0.02%	-0.45%	-0.19%	0.22%		0.32%	0.12%	-0.58%
AUD	-0.33%	-0.77%	-0.50%	-0.08%	-0.32%		-0.18%	-0.90%
NZD	-0.15%	-0.59%	-0.33%	0.11%	-0.12%	0.18%		-0.71%
CHF	0.60%	0.13%	0.39%	0.84%	0.58%	0.90%	0.71%

Percentage movements between the major currencies appear in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, selecting the New Zealand Dollar on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for NZD (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.

Near 101.70 at the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains down 0.3% despite rebounding from an intraday trough of 101.43. The index measures the Greenback against six major currencies.

70-72% odds of Democrat sweep cloud US Dollar outlook

Betting markets assign the Democrats a “70-72% chance of taking both the House and the Senate.” ING’s Chris Turner cites those odds as he identifies the US midterm elections as this week’s main event risk for FX. In his view, “one could make the case that the Dollar should come lower on such an outcome,” since a Democrat sweep would likely “lead to gridlock on the debt ceiling, a prolonged government shutdown next year and could encourage President Trump to pursue an even more activist foreign policy agenda.” Turner suggests investors will balance these political risks against factors that continue to support the Dollar and DXY around 102.00: robust US growth, inflation above target and continued Fed tightening.

Due at 15:00 GMT, October’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI will draw investors’ attention later in the day.

In New Zealand (NZ), Wednesday’s Q3 labour market release is the next focus for investors. The unemployment rate is expected to ease from 5.6% to 5.5%.

0.5655 EMA Caps NZD/USD: Technical Outlook

At 0.5623 on the daily chart, NZD/USD remains below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.5655, keeping the near-term outlook bearish. Since the short-lived recovery in mid-October failed to hold, the pair has edged steadily lower. Trading beneath the short-term EMA points to continued selling pressure.

Around 41, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the neutral 50 threshold. This signals weak upward momentum, rather than an outright oversold market.

Near 0.5655, the 20-day EMA provides the first resistance. Only a daily close above it would soften the bearish bias and clear the path for a more substantial corrective rebound. On the downside, key support stands at 0.5564, the low recorded on 14 October. A break beneath that level could trigger another leg lower.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing this article’s technical analysis. Learn more.)

Economic Data Indicator

Unemployment Rate Explained

Published by Statistics New Zealand, the Unemployment Rate measures unemployed workers as a share of the total civilian labour force. A rising rate signals a lack of growth in New Zealand’s labour market and weakness in its economy. A lower reading is generally viewed as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD); a higher reading is considered bearish.

Read further.

Next scheduled release: Tue 3 Nov 2026 21:45

Release frequency: Every quarter

Consensus forecast: 5.5%

Prior reading: 5.6%

Data source: Stats NZ

Quarterly Employment Data: Why Traders Watch

Quarterly employment figures come from Statistics New Zealand. Covering employment and unemployment rates, labour demand, and movements in wages and salaries, the data provide insight into New Zealand’s labour market. Through their influence on domestic inflation and the interest rate decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), these indicators tend to affect the NZD. A reading above expectations could support the NZD.