$2,309 realised price: ETH stays below as US-led selling continues | Ethereum Price Forecast

$2,280: Ethereum price today

• At $2,309, Ethereum's average on-chain cost basis, or realised price, has capped gains over the past two days.
• Nearly $140 million has flowed out of US spot ETH ETFs as their negative run persists.
• A retest of $2,250 support left the level intact for ETH.

$2,300 remains a pressure point for Ethereum (ETH) on Tuesday. The token is struggling to reclaim its realised price.

Following last Thursday's $6.3 billion Binance hack, the leading altcoin slipped beneath $2,309, its realised price, which represents investors' average on-chain cost basis.

Attempts to regain that threshold have failed over the past two days, indicating that sellers outweigh buyers as ETH approaches it. Investors had defended the on-chain cost basis for over a week before last Thursday's drop, keeping prices just above the level.

To keep their holdings from moving into losses, investors have historically tended to defend the on-chain cost basis. Once prices slip below it, however, they also tend to sell to limit losses. Their response depends heavily on the underlying market structure.

Nearly $140 million in ETF outflows as US investors drive ETH selling

Monday marked a sixth consecutive day of net outflows from US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with nearly $140 million withdrawn, according to SoSoValue data. The figures point to persistent selling pressure from US-based investors. In October, these products registered record monthly outflows of $1.61 billion.

At -0.161, the Coinbase Premium Index also remains on a downward path. By comparing the ETH/USD price on Coinbase Pro with the ETH/USDT price on Binance, the index gauges sentiment among US traders. Its sustained decline indicates that US investors are driving the selling.

ETH price gains have often accompanied stronger ETH ETF inflows and improving overall US sentiment. Both measures therefore need to improve for the leading altcoin to potentially reclaim its realised price.

$2,250 support holds: Ethereum technical outlook

Short liquidations accounted for $20.2 million of Ethereum's $29.3 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.

A bearish near-term bias persists on the daily chart as ETH trades beneath its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Recovery attempts face successive barriers at the 20-day EMA of $2,352, the 100-day EMA of $2,345 and the 50-day EMA of $2,411. Rallies into this cluster are therefore likely to encounter selling pressure. Weak momentum reinforces the bearish picture: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 39, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is near 34.

The horizontal $2,250 level provides initial downside support. If selling persists, $2,204 and then $2,107 come next, with deeper declines bringing the structural floors at $1,971 and $1,827 into view. For any recovery, the first resistance zone combines the converging 100- and 20-day EMAs with the horizontal barrier at $2,355, creating a dense area of supply. Beyond that zone, the 50-day EMA presents further resistance before the higher hurdles of $2,548, $2,636 and $2,781.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)