XRP and XLM Regain Momentum: Ripple and Stellar Outlook as Derivatives Activity Increases

• $1.35 holds beneath XRP’s recovery. Gains extend into a second consecutive day, supported by the 100-day EMA.
• $0.1800 returns as immediate support for XLM, with the RSI’s recovery towards bullish territory lending support. 
• 2.23 billion XRP and 1.22 billion XLM mark the higher perpetual futures Open Interest totals, signalling greater derivatives market activity.

XRP has advanced above $1.36. Alongside Ripple (XRP), Stellar (XLM) is rebuilding momentum on Wednesday, with both tracking gains in major digital assets. XLM has hit $0.1854, and the advances reinforce recently tested support levels. Prices are edging higher against a backdrop of persistent United States (US) inflation, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

An 85% probability of interest rates remaining within the 3.75-4.00% range is priced in by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The probability of a 25-basis-point increase is 15%. Even as XRP and XLM recover, traders appear to be keeping risk exposure limited ahead of the Fed decision.

XRP and XLM retail participation strengthens

Perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) reached 2.23 billion XRP on Wednesday, a modest increase from 2.18 billion XRP a day earlier, as derivatives trading gathered pace. According to CoinGlass data, retail traders are attempting to establish an uptrend. OI stood at 2.12 billion XRP on Sunday. 

Sustained interest is not yet confirmed, however. The latest reading remains well short of September’s peak of 2.46 billion XRP and August’s high of 2.77 billion XRP.

From 1.14 billion XLM the previous day, Stellar futures OI has increased to 1.22 billion XLM on Wednesday. Roughly 217 million XLM is held on Binance and 222 million XLM on Bybit. Total OI has recovered from Monday’s 1.12 billion XLM. Leveraged positions are expanding alongside the price advance, suggesting a recovery in speculative interest in the token.

XRP technical analysis: Selling pressure fades as price advances

At $1.36, XRP remains beneath both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), each at $1.38. That positioning maintains a bearish near-term bias, notwithstanding the latest rebound from recent lows.

Overhead barriers remain at the $1.47 SuperTrend line and the broader descending resistance trendline projected towards $1.61. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 in neutral territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still marginally negative, the indicators point to fading upward momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

The 200-day EMA forms the first resistance level, overlapping with the 50-day EMA around $1.38. To relieve the prevailing downward pressure, XRP would need a daily close above this cluster. Beyond it, the SuperTrend barrier around $1.47 and the descending trendline area towards $1.62 present further hurdles. Initial downside support sits at the 100-day EMA of $1.34. A breach would likely pave the way for a larger retreat towards earlier price lows.

Stellar technical analysis: XLM bulls seek recovery on firmer momentum

At $0.1854, XLM is moving higher as buyers build momentum above recently established support around $0.1700. The two-day rise has not removed the bearish bias: the token remains beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, grouped between approximately $0.1900 and $0.1946. It also trades below SuperTrend resistance at $0.2060. A slowly recovering but negative MACD, together with an RSI near 44, indicates muted momentum rather than a forceful reversal.

The 100-day EMA at $0.1903 is the first upside hurdle. Next come the 50-day EMA at $0.1934 and the 200-day EMA at $0.1946, forming a tight resistance cluster ahead of the $0.2060 SuperTrend level. Further up, descending trendline resistance sits around $0.2263. For downside moves, attention centres on the current $0.1854 price pivot. A sustained breach would bring the previous descending trendline breakout zone near $0.1685 into view as the next significant support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)