$84K in Focus: Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast as BTC gathers pace and XAU jumps above $4,100

• $83,000 is Bitcoin’s next target as it moves higher. Bulls firmly defended support near $80,000 during a correction driven by macroeconomic factors.
• $4,100 remains beneath Gold as it posts a modest gain, although major moving averages overhead appear to constrain its recovery.
• 85% is the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged next week, despite continuing macroeconomic uncertainty.

$80,000 recently held as support for Bitcoin (BTC). The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation is edging up on Wednesday, with buyers appearing to increase their risk exposure. Its recent test confirmed support near that level as investors rebalanced portfolios against higher United States (US) inflation and ongoing geopolitical pressures. 

A modest daily gain keeps Gold (XAU/USD) above $4,100. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and structural levels appear to restrict the metal’s recovery prospects.

October Fed decision: Rate pause bets stay high

An unchanged interest rate is the outcome markets strongly favour at next week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding rates at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October is 85%. A 25-basis-point increase to 4.00-4.25% carries roughly a 15% probability.

Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report highlighted persistent US inflation, providing the backdrop to strong expectations for unchanged rates. For December, interest rate traders are assigning a higher probability to a rate increase.

In an emailed analysis report, Crypto Finance said: “Markets currently assign approximately an 85% probability to unchanged rates at the October 28 meeting, although expectations for another rate hike in December remain elevated,”

Macroeconomic conditions remain a key driver of cryptocurrency risk appetite. On Wednesday, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 63, placing it in Greed territory, compared with 55 a day earlier. Although sentiment is elevated, the Fed’s persistently restrictive monetary policy continues to temper conviction in aggressive gains.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Key support holds

At $83,564, Bitcoin retains a constructive bullish bias, trading comfortably above its short-, medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). An underlying demand zone is reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $80,795 and the SuperTrend baseline around $79,664. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, signalling that upward momentum may be fading.

A broadly neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 55 points to consolidation within the wider uptrend, rather than a rally that has fully run out of momentum.

The first support level is the 50-day EMA at $80,794, ahead of the SuperTrend line at $79,664. A retreat towards these levels could see buyers try to regain control. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $77,352 and the 200-day EMA at $76,177 provide structural support. Provided these levels hold, they should sustain the broader bullish structure.

Gold technical outlook: XAU support holds, upside constrained

Trading at $4,134, Gold is attempting a recovery as bulls defend support above $4,100. That demand zone is encouraging investors to consider returning, but near-term pressure persists. The metal remains below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, with the nearest at $4,241 reinforcing the bearish bias despite a slightly positive MACD reading above zero. Around 43, the RSI remains neutral, indicating weak momentum rather than capitulation.

The 50-day EMA near $4,241 presents the first resistance hurdle. Beyond it sit the 200-day EMA at $4,291 and the 100-day EMA at $4,294, while the SuperTrend line at $4,327 marks a broader ceiling for any recovery. With no structural support levels on the daily chart, traders must instead look to psychological demand zones at $4,100 and $4,000. A sustained move back below this support range would likely pave the way for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)