Daily Financial Breakfast 10 November 2026: Rate Hikes Backed by Waller; Further Iran Strikes Unnecessary, Says Trump

Market News Today: Rate-Rise Expectations Build as Oil Falls

• October monthly core inflation of 0.3% or higher may require a half-point December rate rise, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, arguing that further increases were needed.
• Diplomatic hopes sent WTI lower to around $85.30 a barrel, with Bloomberg reporting that President Donald Trump considered further strikes on Iran unnecessary.
• Persistent inflation risks stemming from energy costs remained a concern for Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, who would not rule out raising rates in December.
• A December Fed target range of 4.00%-4.25% was the unanimous expectation of 101 economists in a Reuters poll, all of whom anticipated a 25-basis-point increase.
• With year-end inflation forecast to be a little above 4%, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said it would be prudent to raise rates in December if the data remained unchanged.
• Support for continuing to raise rates appeared in a member's comments in the October meeting Summary of Opinions released by the Bank of Japan.
• In comments to El Financiero, Bank of Mexico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said rate cuts had been part of the central bank's considerations since September.
• The UK's greater-than-expected economic resilience owed something to AI investment, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said, while warning of the risk of bubbles.
• An NYSE-affiliated tokenised securities platform will use Avalanche's clearing and settlement ledger technology, subject to regulatory approvals, according to an announcement from Ava Labs.

Dollar Recovers as Oil Prices Weaken

Dollar Regains Ground After Waller's Remarks

Waller's remarks helped the U.S. Dollar Index recover from earlier losses on Tuesday to around 101.70, a rise of 0.05%. An early advance in sterling gave way to losses, with the pound trading around $1.3430. The Australian dollar had gained 0.88% in Monday's session, reaching $0.6924.

Brent and WTI Reach Multi-Month Lows

Rabobank reported that Brent had dropped $4.60 to $93.70 a barrel, the lowest price since September. Meanwhile, early Asian trading on Tuesday saw WTI at around $85.30, a level last seen in August.

AVAX Rises Against Broader Crypto Weakness

News of Avalanche's involvement in an NYSE-affiliated tokenised securities platform helped its AVAX token gain 4% on Monday, bucking a decline across the wider cryptocurrency market.

Rate-Rise Signals Dominate Global Policy & Diplomacy Weighs on Oil

Waller Backs Further Tightening as October Inflation Could Warrant Half-Point Rise

Higher interest rates were needed to reduce inflation, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in remarks reported by Reuters, because policy had proved less restrictive than he had previously believed. Keeping the same degree of monetary restraint, he added, required real interest rates to rise.

An October monthly core consumer-price inflation reading of around 0.3% or higher may necessitate a half-point increase in December, according to Waller. His assessment paired elevated inflation pressures with solid labour-market conditions. He considered widespread productivity gains from artificial intelligence to be some way off, and said sharp share-price moves generally had little significance for his interest-rate view.

Concern over inflation was shared by other Fed officials, though their remarks did not provide the same guidance on December. For Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, risks to the central bank's mandate lay on the inflation side. He urged officials to proceed carefully despite a straightforward policy direction, describing rates as close to neutral and saying he had no base case for December.

Recent months had brought faster services inflation, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said, making it more difficult to attribute price pressures solely to tariffs. Rabobank judged his remarks and those of Barkin to be broadly in keeping with the Fed's firmer tone on tackling inflation.

Oil Retreats on Trump's View That Further Iran Strikes Are Unnecessary

Bloomberg reported on Monday that President Donald Trump saw “positive momentum” towards ending the war and said there would be no need for further strikes on Iran. The United States nevertheless remained “locked and loaded.”

Continued attacks in the Middle East did not prevent oil prices from falling on expectations of diplomatic progress. Accounts of Monday's foreign-exchange and oil markets, however, noted that progress towards a U.S.-Iran agreement had yet to be confirmed.

In its reporting, Rabobank also referred to Trump's weekend statement that extensive strikes would be “highly unlikely” if Iran signed a “very strong agreement.” The remarks depended on that condition, with no completed agreement announced.

Persistent Energy Shock Keeps December Rate Rise in Play for Lombardelli

Inflation risks remained skewed to the upside as the energy shock became more persistent, according to Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli. Addressing the Bank of England Watchers' Conference in London on Tuesday, she said high energy costs had increased the prospect of second-round effects.

A December interest-rate rise was not ruled out by Lombardelli in a separate interview with the Guardian. Her remarks left that policy option available without committing to an increase.

Reuters Survey Finds Complete Agreement on Quarter-Point December Fed Rise

The Reuters survey conducted between 6 November and 10 November found all 101 economists expecting a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve increase in December. This would put the target range at 4.00%-4.25%. Agreement among the economists did not constitute an announced decision by the Fed.

Market pricing offered a separate indication: the implied probability of a December increase reached 82% during Monday's session.

Lane Supports December ECB Increase if Data Remain Unchanged

Year-end inflation was likely to be a little above 4%, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane projected, saying a December rate rise would be prudent barring a change in incoming data. He believed inflation had still to reach its peak and expected both core and food inflation to accelerate.

Europe's economic resilience reassured Lane. Discussing France's public finances, he said the resolution of French fiscal problems needed to come from Paris.

BoJ Member Favours Further Tightening in October Meeting Opinions

In the Bank of Japan's published Summary of Opinions for its October monetary-policy meeting, one member argued that continuing to raise interest rates was appropriate. The statement conveyed that member's policy judgement, rather than a newly announced rate decision.

Bank of Mexico Has Weighed Rate Cuts Since September, Governor Reports

September was when the Bank of Mexico began considering interest-rate cuts, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja told El Financiero. She was describing policy discussions, not announcing that rates had been reduced.

AI Spending Helps UK Economy Hold Up as Bailey Flags Bubble Risks

Investment in artificial intelligence, particularly within business services, partly accounted for UK economic activity proving more resilient than expected, according to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. His speech to the Swiss Institute of International Studies in Zurich also included a warning about AI-related bubble risks.

Tokenisation Advances in Financial Technology & Infrastructure

Avalanche Wins Clearing Role for NYSE-Affiliated Tokenised Securities Platform

The core clearing and settlement ledger for an NYSE-affiliated digital alternative trading system will be supplied by Avalanche, Ava Labs said. Regulatory approvals are required for the platform, which is being developed to enable 24/7 trading, clearing and settlement of tokenised securities.

Explaining the selection, NYSE Head of Digital Issuance Dennis Lee pointed to network controls, speed, reliability and predictable operating costs. At the same time, NYSE parent ICE was broadening its on-chain activities, including through partnerships with OKX and Trade[XYZ].

US Inflation Release and Fed Decision Approach

• U.S. October Consumer Price Index Data Due (10 November 2026, 13:30 GMT): October consumer-price inflation figures are scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Federal Reserve Set to Announce Rate Decision (9 December 2026): The December interest-rate decision is scheduled to be announced by the Federal Reserve.