Hot US inflation data push Australian Dollar below 100-day SMA

• Rejection at key moving averages sends AUD/USD down to 0.7020.
• Bearish technical bias strengthens as AUD/USD breaks below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032.
• Robust US GDP and high Core PCE inflation weigh on Australian Dollar buyers.

Strong US economic figures have underscored the economy’s resilience, potentially raising the likelihood of higher interest rates. Against that backdrop, the Australian Dollar is losing ground to the US Dollar on Thursday, having met a key area of resistance where the 50- and 200-day SMAs converge. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7020.

AUD/USD falls back from converging 50- and 200-day SMAs as breach of 0.7032 points to further losses

US economic growth reached 3.4% YoY in Q3 2026, above the 3.2% forecast and the previous reading of 2.2%. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 3.1% in September, matching expectations and accelerating from 3% in the preceding month. Wall Street closed lower, reflecting subdued risk sentiment.

Also included in the releases were Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 24 October. Claims declined to 194K from 195K, confounding forecasts for an increase to 199K.

Following the figures, AUD/USD pushed further below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, leaving scope for additional losses. Investors have nevertheless scaled back their hawkish Fed bets from Wednesday’s levels. According to Prime Terminal, the odds stand at 76% at the time of writing, compared with 84% a day earlier.

Hopes for diplomatic headway in the Middle East have increased alongside these developments. With the Asian session under way, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, was down about 0.13% at $102.71.

A 6.5 basis point decline took the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.907%, as Treasury yields moved lower. The fall partly reflected the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and the absence of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose focus was largely on operations rather than monetary policy.

Although Warsh described eight as the appropriate number of FOMC meetings, he said there would be seven monetary policy decisions in 2027 and six in 2028.

A speech by RBA Governor Bullock was the only item on Australia’s Thursday calendar. She described inflation as far too high and acknowledged that CPI was consistent with upside risks to inflation.

Friday brings Australia’s Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI), measured on an annual basis, following a reading of 3.6% in the previous quarter. In the US, the calendar includes speeches by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Pair remains under technical pressure

Trading at 0.7024 on the daily chart, AUD/USD remains below the latest reading of the three simple moving averages at 0.7069, preserving a bearish near-term bias. As the pair drifts towards the bottom of its recent range, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 51.33, only slightly above neutral. That reading suggests limited rather than convincing upward momentum, with the broader technical structure still exerting downward pressure.

The first resistance lies around 0.7069, where the 50/100/200-period simple moving averages cluster, ahead of a horizontal barrier near 0.7198. Further up, the broader descending trend line from 0.8015 adds a ceiling to rallies. Beneath the market, a series of rising support trend lines originating in the 0.68–0.69 area provides support. The bias therefore remains bearish below the moving averages, although declines into this ascending band would likely draw buyers before the daily structure deteriorates more substantially.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)