Bitcoin vs Gold Outlook: BTC and XAU retreat amid October rise in US inflation

• US inflation data prompt a market reaction on Tuesday, with Bitcoin slipping below $74,000.
• Major moving averages and the dynamic SuperTrend indicator weigh on Gold as it corrects towards $4,050.
• October US CPI increased by 0.4%, exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%.

Against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and weak technical structures, Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD) remain in broad downtrends on Tuesday. BTC is trading around $74,000 and XAU near $4,050, with the path of least resistance still pointing lower for both assets.

While the pivotal $4,000 level appears to offer Gold support, Bitcoin is still testing lower demand zones towards $70,000.

US CPI climbs in October

A 0.4% month-on-month rise in October inflation was recorded in the United States (US) Consumer Price Index, published on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The reading exceeded the market forecast of 0.3%, following September’s 0.6% increase.

At 0.3%, October’s increase in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from September but exceeded market expectations of 0.2%.

Annual inflation readings were absent from the release, as monthly data for October 2025 are unavailable owing to the government shutdown between 1 October 2025 and 12 November 2025.

In written commentary, Joel Kruger, Global Markets Strategist at LMAX Group, said: “We see little in today’s US inflation data to materially shift the market outlook, despite the slightly hotter-than-expected readings,” adding: “With markets already pricing in a December Fed rate hike, there is limited scope for an additional hawkish repricing.”

An 87% probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates to the 4.00-4.25% range in December is priced into markets, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Rates were left unchanged in October after September’s 25-basis-point increase, the first rise in three years.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin remains under sellers’ control

Trading at $74,051, Bitcoin retains a bearish short-term bias below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Overhead resistance comes from the 200-day EMA at $76,460, the 100-day EMA at $77,562 and the 50-day EMA at $79,114. As long as the pair stays beneath this cluster, rebounds are likely to encounter a ceiling.

The momentum indicators also suggest caution. Both below its signal line and in negative territory, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line points to continued downward pressure. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 35 reinforces that message, though conditions are not yet deeply oversold.

Any advance would first encounter the 200-day EMA near $76,460, before reaching the 100-day EMA at roughly $77,562 and the 50-day EMA around $79,114. Together, these levels create a dense overhead supply zone that buyers would have to reclaim to neutralise the prevailing downtrend.

For the downside outlook, structural demand is identifiable only at a much higher level: the SuperTrend reading around $81,208. Sitting well above the spot price, it would become relevant only if BTC mounts a broader recovery. In the meantime, further losses remain a risk while the pair trades beneath the daily EMA cluster.

Gold technical analysis: XAU gives up gains as selling pressure builds

At $4,055, Gold continues to show a bearish short-term bias beneath a tight cluster of moving averages and trend resistance. Above the metal, the 50-day EMA stands at roughly $4,150, followed by the 100-day and 200-day EMAs near $4,229 and $4,257, respectively. These reinforce the broader ceiling alongside a downward resistance trendline that remains intact, with its break level considerably higher at around $4,337.

With the SuperTrend signal also above spot at approximately $4,163, any recovery remains a corrective rebound within a structure constrained by overhead resistance. Although the MACD has moved into positive territory and the RSI sits just below 50, these readings suggest only a modest stabilisation in momentum, rather than a clear reversal to a bullish trend.

To relieve immediate downward pressure, buyers would first need to overcome a supply cluster formed by the 50-day EMA around $4,150 and the nearby SuperTrend barrier near $4,163. Further up, a broader resistance band spans the 100-day EMA at about $4,229 and the 200-day EMA near $4,257. The break level of the downward resistance trendline, around $4,337, represents a more significant medium-term obstacle: reclaiming it would be necessary to overturn the prevailing bearish bias. The supplied daily chart levels offer no identifiable support nearby. Consequently, renewed weakness below $4,055 would expose Gold to further declines until a fresh demand zone takes shape on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)