Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Falls Below $2,400 Alongside Declining Exchange Reserves

Ethereum trades at $2,370 today

• A 5% fall in ETH erases the last two days' gains, with shares also retreating amid Middle East tensions and AI-related spending concerns.
• Declining exchange reserves and ETH accumulation by large wallets point to some buying on the dip.
• Following rejection at the confluence of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, ETH may find support around $2,355.

A fall below $2,400 on Thursday leaves Ethereum (ETH) under pressure as renewed tensions in the US-Iran crisis and AI-related spending weigh on the crypto market.

Coinglass data show that the leading altcoin has lost 5% over the past 24 hours, wiping out the previous two days' gains and prompting $93 million in liquidations. Of that total, roughly $85.3 million came from long positions.

Across the broader crypto market, prices fell 4%, while liquidations totalled roughly $454 million over the past 24 hours.

Renewed US-Iran tensions preceded the sell-off. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump ruled out talks on negotiations with Tehran, saying that "something" will happen "fair soon." Further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia also raised fears of additional disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Brent crude subsequently climbed 3.8% to $113 per barrel. Equities sold off sharply: concerns over AI-related spending wiped out Wednesday's gains despite improved Q3 tech earnings, leaving the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 2.8%. A move into safe-haven assets drove the benchmark US 10Y Treasury Yield below 5%, marking its lowest level in nearly a month.

ETH exchange reserves decline as large wallets add holdings

Despite the price retreat, on-chain data point to buying on the dip.

Over the past 48 hours, Ethereum exchange reserves fell by 170K ETH to 14.882M ETH. This measure tracks coins held in exchange wallets. The decline may reflect transfers from exchanges into self-custody, potentially reducing the supply available for sale.

Several whale, or large-holder, wallets have also accumulated ETH over the past 24 hours, according to on-chain smart money tracker Lookonchain.

Lookonchain also reported that another wallet has been switching from Bitcoin into ETH. On Thursday, it sold 246.25 BTC ($20.64 million) to purchase 8,286 ETH ($20.64 million). Its sales over the past 11 days amount to 1,917.7 BTC, alongside purchases of 64,545 ETH.

Ethereum technical outlook: ETH approaches support at $2,355

Failure to remain above the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sent ETH below $2,400. Throughout the past week, bears have repeatedly intensified selling near these short-term EMAs.

The leading altcoin is moving towards the 100-day EMA and horizontal support at $2,355, a level that has held consistently for the last eight days. A break lower could bring a test of the $2,204 horizontal level, followed by the base at $2,026.

To challenge resistance higher up, ETH needs to sustain a daily close above the short-term EMAs and establish them as support.

At 39 and 26 respectively, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are both falling. These momentum readings signal that bears remain in control, with oversold territory coming into view.