WTI Oil Price Forecast: As upward pressure mounts, buyers target a breakout above $100

• The $100 level draws closer for WTI oil as Middle East supply risks persist.
• Holding above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, WTI retains a bullish daily chart outlook.
• Further gains towards $105 could follow a convincing break above $100.

Trading at around $99 at the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is up 1.40% on the day and close to five-week highs. Thursday’s rebound comes as persistent Middle East tensions sustain elevated supply risks and a substantial geopolitical risk premium across energy markets.

Concerns over additional disruption to oil supplies have intensified following the latest events in the Middle East.

The United States (US) and Israel are weighing further strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections, The New York Times reports. Potential targets include the country’s energy facilities.

Following reported attacks on the Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport, there is still no sign of an easing in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. In response to the situation, the US State Department has ordered non-emergency government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia.

Another significant source of concern is shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to a claim by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its navy targeted four vessels engaged in oil transfers in the Gulf. In a separate development, three other ships reportedly struck mines near the Strait and caught fire.

Alternative shipping routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly being used by producers, allowing Middle East oil exports to return to pre-war levels despite escalating tensions. Citing Kpler data, the Financial Times reported that shipments from Gulf producers excluding Iran averaged 24.6 million barrels per day in the week ending 18 October, exceeding the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels per day.

WTI retains a bullish technical bias

A bullish near-term outlook remains in place for WTI US Oil on the daily chart, with prices comfortably above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $91 and the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs grouped just below $85. At around 64, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in positive territory but has not yet reached overbought extremes. Alongside a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, this points to solid upward momentum. An Average Directional Index (ADX) close to 27 also indicates a moderately strong underlying trend.

The psychological $100.00 level provides the first resistance, followed by $105 should buyers sustain the advance. Initial downside support lies around today’s opening level near $98.98. More substantial structural support comes from the 50-day SMA at around $91.01, before a deeper medium-term support zone comprising the 100-day SMA at $84.67, the 200-day SMA at $84.11 and the horizontal levels of $80.00 and $75.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)