WTI Price Forecast: Correction continues below $100

• Oil falls below $100 as concerns over renewed US attacks on Iran recede.
• A diplomatic solution remains President Trump’s preference, according to US Secretary of State Rubio.
• Talks with the US via Qatari mediators are continuing, Iran indicates.

A 2.25% decline takes West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX to around $99.80 in Monday’s European trading. Oil is extending a correction that began after its rally failed to push beyond $104.03, the five-month high reached on Friday.

Signals that the United States (US) would favour a diplomatic solution with Iran over renewed military action have eased concerns about prolonged risks to energy supplies, weighing on WTI.

Speaking over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump favoured a diplomatic resolution and that Washington had not decided to resume strikes on Tehran. The prospect of military action nevertheless remained open: Rubio said the US retained the capabilities to achieve whatever military objective Trump chose to pursue.

Energy supply concerns also eased after Iran said discussions with Qatari mediators were continuing over a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided the US cooperated, Al Jazeera reported.

The decline in oil prices meanwhile suggests financial markets are disregarding claims by US media personality and political commentator Tucker Carlso. According to The Times of India (ToI), he claimed that Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu was urging US President Donald Trump to launch a nuclear strike on Iran and alleged that Washington could decide on the use of nuclear weapons within days.

WTI Remains Below Its Short-Term EMA

Below $100 on the daily chart, WTI US Oil sits just beneath its 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $100.09. That average is limiting gains and leaves the near-term outlook mildly bearish, despite the strong advance from the mid-$80s.

Trading beneath this short-term EMA points to fading bullish traction. However, the Relative Strength Index (14), at around 58, remains in positive territory, suggesting momentum is still constructive but has not yet delivered a decisive bullish break through immediate resistance.

The key upside obstacle for oil remains the five-month high of $104.03. Should prices fall, the 20 October low of $95.05 could provide an important support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)