WTI Price Forecast: Extends losses below $100.50, but bullish potential appears intact

• Hopes of reduced hostilities in the Middle East weigh on WTI as the new week begins.
• The standoff between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia keeps a geopolitical risk premium in prices.
• A favourable technical backdrop suggests buyers could step in on further price declines.

A fall below the mid-$100.00s in Asian trading leaves West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, extending its losses after opening the week with a downward gap. Prices have moved further away from Friday’s five-month high, although continuing geopolitical uncertainty appears likely to limit the scope for further declines.

Immediate military action against Iran was ruled out by US President Donald Trump on Sunday. Earlier, amid mounting Iranian and Houthi threats to American interests in the region, Trump had suggested that the US might need to finish the job or potentially strike a deal with Tehran. His comments have encouraged hopes that tensions in the Middle East could ease, drawing some selling in crude oil at the beginning of the week.

An unnamed US official, however, told an Israeli news channel that Trump was ready to change course on Iran, with military strikes appearing to be a matter of when rather than if. On Sunday, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis also threatened to continue attacking Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. With US-Iran talks stalled, the geopolitical risk premium remains a factor and could underpin crude oil prices.

The near-term technical outlook remains bullish while oil holds above both the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the monthly low. A mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading sits just above the zero line. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index, at around 55, points to sustained upward momentum.

Should prices fall further, the first support could emerge around $99.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Below that, the 50-period SMA near $97.83 and the 38.2% retracement at $96.84 together mark a broader area of demand on pullbacks. The first obstacle to further gains is the Fibonacci anchor around $103.29. A sustained move above it would pave the way for the recent, well-established upward trend to extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Find out more.)

WTI price action on the 4-hour chart