Strike on Saudi refinery lifts WTI above $100.50

• WTI advances towards $100.75 during early European trading on Wednesday.
• Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery was hit by a missile, according to Yemen’s Houthis.
• API reported a 2.031 million-barrel decline in crude oil stocks for the week ended 23 October.

At around $100.75 in Wednesday’s early European session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is moving higher. An attack on a Saudi Arabian refinery has revived concerns over supply risks from the major exporter, supporting the advance.

A ballistic missile was launched towards the Ras Tanura oil refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia on Tuesday by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, Reuters reported. The facility is the kingdom’s largest refinery.

ING commodity strategists said the market continues to price in a greater probability of renewed escalation. They added: "Oil prices remain elevated as the market waits for greater clarity on President Trump's next move toward Iran,"

A 2.031 million-barrel reduction in US crude stockpiles was recorded in the week ending 23 October, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). The decline followed a 4.93 million-barrel fall the previous week.

Later on Wednesday, traders will turn their attention to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude oil stocks. An inventory draw exceeding expectations points to stronger demand and could support WTI. Conversely, a larger-than-forecast build suggests softer demand or surplus supply and might weigh on prices.

Oil retains upside bias as Middle East risks support prices and freight costs constrain gains

TD Securities sees crude prices retaining an upward bias in the near term. Its analysts state that “we expect crude oil will remain skewed to the upside in the near term as escalation risk ahead of Israeli elections and US midterm elections remains elevated.” Pointing to further support for the geopolitical premium in benchmark prices, they note that “recent Houthi strikes have seen risk premium pricing in the market increase, while persistent tanker attacks by Iran appear to have been successful in reducing some Hormuz flows,” However, transport costs may increasingly restrain gains despite the continuing geopolitical risks. TD Securities emphasises that “beyond escalation in the Middle East conflict, freight rates have increasingly become the important marginal driver, with elevated landed prices for refiners potentially putting a cap on crude oil upside as weaker margins may limit refiner runs,”

Technical Analysis: WTI holds bullish bias above the 100-day SMA

Holding well above both the 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average, WTI US Oil retains a positive bullish bias on the daily chart. Prices are pushing into the upper half of the Bollinger envelope. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14), at roughly 62, remains in positive territory without signalling overbought conditions. Together, these indicators suggest continued upward pressure, although corrective pauses remain possible.

The upper Bollinger band near $103.95 marks immediate resistance and the next significant supply zone that bulls may encounter. Initial support lies around $95.05 at the 20-day Bollinger middle band. Further protection comes from the lower Bollinger band near $86.15 and the 100-day moving average just above $85.00. Provided these levels hold, they collectively form the broader floor for the bullish outlook.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)