WTI holds near $99.00 at five-week highs as Middle East supply risks intensify

• Five-week highs came within reach for WTI following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and Red Sea ports.
• Global markets face heightened risk from possible US-Israeli military strikes on Iranian energy facilities after the midterm elections.
• Amid growing fears over regional conflict, Saudi Aramco reportedly instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters.

At around $98.80 per barrel in Friday’s Asian trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is holding gains for a second consecutive day. Escalating geopolitical tensions and threats to Middle Eastern supplies have kept the price close to its highest level in five weeks.

Responsibility for recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu has been claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants, alongside deadly strikes on an oil field and an airport in the world’s largest crude exporter. Reports that the US and Israeli militaries have prepared plans for possible renewed attacks on Iran after next month’s midterm elections have added to concerns. Iran’s energy infrastructure would likely be a key target. In Europe, meanwhile, Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian oil refineries against the backdrop of a US-Russia agreement involving diesel supplies.

The accumulation of these threats is driving the latest upward momentum in prices, energy market analysts stress. Reuters cited a note from energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates, which said that "the complex is rebounding on another strong injection of risk premium related to an additional Houthi attack on Saudi infrastructure amid talk of a combined US-Israeli strike on Iran after the midterms."

According to six sources familiar with the matter, Saudi state oil company Aramco has told employees to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on the Persian Gulf, underscoring the growing urgency on the ground. The company did not immediately reply to requests for comment. The instruction would mark Aramco’s first major evacuation since the conflict with Iran began.

With Brent recovering to around a five-month high near $110 per barrel, Deutsche Bank analysts say they are “starting with the oil moves,” explaining that “several geopolitical headlines came through overnight that led to mounting concerns about a fresh escalation in the conflict.” They point to reports of possible US and Israel strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, alongside ongoing attacks in Saudi Arabia. These developments are fuelling concerns that investors may now be factoring in a sustained period of high oil prices extending well into 2027.