Australian Dollar slips below 100-day SMA as US inflation runs hot

• Selling pressure takes AUD/USD to 0.7020 as key moving averages cap gains.
• The bearish technical bias strengthens as the 100-day SMA at 0.7032 gives way.
• Aussie buyers face pressure from robust US GDP and high Core PCE inflation.

Selling pressure weighs on the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar on Thursday, leaving AUD/USD trading at 0.7020 after the pair ran into combined resistance at the 50- and 200-day SMAs. Robust US data underscored the economy’s resilience, potentially raising the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Does the break below 0.7032 point to more AUD/USD losses after rejection at the 50- and 200-day SMAs?

Weak risk sentiment left Wall Street in negative territory at the close. US economic growth came in at 3.4% YoY in Q3 2026, above both the 3.2% forecast and the previous reading of 2.2%. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose by 3.1% in September, matching expectations but accelerating from 3% in the preceding month.

Also included in the releases were Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24. Claims eased to 194K from 195K, against expectations of an increase to 199K.

Following the releases, AUD/USD deepened its decline below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, leaving scope for additional losses. Despite this, investors had scaled back their hawkish Fed bets from Wednesday’s levels. According to Prime Terminal, the odds stood at 76% at the time of writing, compared with 84% a day earlier.

Growing optimism over diplomatic progress in the Middle East provided the backdrop to these developments. With the Asian session under way, US Oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down about 0.13% at $102.71.

A 6.5-basis-point decline took the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.907% as Treasury yields moved lower. The fall partly reflected the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and the absence of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose focus was largely on operations rather than monetary policy.

Although Warsh described eight as the appropriate number of FOMC meetings, he said 2027 would have seven monetary policy decisions, followed by six in 2028.

Australia’s Thursday calendar had no releases, with RBA Governor Bullock’s speech the sole event. She described inflation as far too high and acknowledged that CPI was consistent with upside risks to inflation.

Friday brings Australia’s Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI), reported on an annual basis, after a reading of 3.6% in the previous quarter. On the US calendar are speeches by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Can support contain the technical downside?

A bearish near-term bias persists on the daily chart, where AUD/USD trades at 0.7024, below the latest combined simple moving average reading of 0.7069. As the pair edges towards the bottom of its recent range, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 51.33, only slightly above neutral. This points to limited rather than convincing upward momentum, with the broader structure continuing to exert downward pressure.

The 50/100/200-period simple moving averages, clustered around 0.7069, form the first resistance zone. Beyond that lies a horizontal hurdle near 0.7198, while the broader descending trend line from 0.8015 adds a ceiling to rallies at higher levels. Support, meanwhile, comes from a set of rising trend lines originating in the 0.68–0.69 region. The bias therefore remains bearish below the moving averages, but declines into this ascending support band would likely draw buyers before the daily structure suffers any deeper deterioration.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)