Hawkish RBA lifts Australian Dollar to fresh monthly high despite firmer USD

Buying interest in AUD/USD extends its rebound from a multi-month low into a fourth consecutive day.
The Aussie continues to draw support from recent hawkish remarks by RBA officials.
Despite USD support from geopolitical risks and Fed rate-hike expectations, the pair continues to advance.

Buying momentum in AUD/USD remains intact on Wednesday, taking its recovery into a fourth consecutive day as recent hawkish remarks by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials support the pair. During the first half of the European session, spot prices reach a fresh monthly high near 0.7030. The advance extends last week's rebound from below 0.6900, the lowest level since early July.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Rate-hike expectations remain in place ahead of the November 3 policy meeting following comments from RBA officials. On Monday, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said there were reasonable indications of rising neutral interest rates in Australia and globally. Earlier today, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also cautioned that Q3 trimmed-mean inflation could exceed expectations. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP reading from China provides further support to the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Hopes of US-Iran peace talks leave the US Dollar (USD) struggling to draw meaningful buying interest. Even so, uncertainty over the Middle East crisis and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps the geopolitical risk premium intact. The safe-haven dollar also finds support from growing expectations that oil-led inflation concerns will prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise borrowing costs again in December. These factors, however, have done little to restrain the rise in AUD/USD.

The balance of these factors suggests that spot prices remain more likely to rise, with buyers likely to step in on any corrective decline. Global flash PMIs due on Friday are next on traders' radar, although the closely watched two-day FOMC meeting beginning next Tuesday will remain the main focus. Next Thursday's Advance US Q3 GDP reading and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will also provide cues.

AUD/USD: daily chart view

Can AUD/USD Overcome Its Technical Resistance?

A bearish near-term bias persists as AUD/USD trades just under its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7034 and beneath the mid-range 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7064. This overhead resistance cluster, comprising the SMA and successive Fibonacci levels at 0.7104 and 0.7162, continues to cap spot prices, indicating that advances could meet resistance around these levels.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7024 offers immediate downside support. Below it, the 23.6% level at 0.6974 guards the recent pullback, followed by a deeper structural floor around 0.6893. While AUD/USD remains beneath the 100-day SMA at 0.7034, a fall through 0.7024 would clear the path towards 0.6974 and possibly 0.6893, whereas attempts to recover

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Has The Australian Dollar Performed This Week?

The Australian Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen this week. The table below sets out the Australian Dollar's (AUD) percentage changes against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.29%	-0.65%	0.05%	-0.47%	-0.98%	-0.53%	-0.22%
EUR	0.29%		-0.33%	0.37%	-0.11%	-0.62%	-0.21%	0.10%
GBP	0.65%	0.33%		0.72%	0.23%	-0.27%	0.12%	0.48%
JPY	-0.05%	-0.37%	-0.72%		-0.50%	-1.03%	-0.57%	-0.15%
CAD	0.47%	0.11%	-0.23%	0.50%		-0.53%	-0.03%	0.29%
AUD	0.98%	0.62%	0.27%	1.03%	0.53%		0.39%	0.72%
NZD	0.53%	0.21%	-0.12%	0.57%	0.03%	-0.39%		0.36%
CHF	0.22%	-0.10%	-0.48%	0.15%	-0.29%	-0.72%	-0.36%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Australian Dollar on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for AUD (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.