Hawkish RBA counters USD gains, keeping Australian Dollar near monthly high above 0.7000

• Buying interest in AUD/USD extends into a fourth day as RBA officials strike a hawkish tone.
• The AUD receives further backing from China’s strong Q3 GDP reading released on Monday.
• Gains remain limited as oil-related inflation concerns strengthen Fed rate-hike expectations and lift the USD.

Buying interest keeps AUD/USD firmly above the psychological 0.7000 level in Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair remains on a positive footing for a fourth consecutive day, trading close to the monthly high reached in the previous session.

Support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) comes from the hawkish stance of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, which sustains expectations of a rate increase ahead of the policy meeting on 3 November. Speaking on Monday, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said there were reasonable indications of rising neutral interest rates in Australia and globally. Earlier today, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also cautioned that Q3 trimmed-mean inflation could exceed expectations.

The Aussie draws additional support from China’s strong Q3 GDP report, which showed year-on-year economic growth of 4.5% in the July-September period. At the same time, concerns over oil-led inflation bolster expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, allowing the US Dollar (USD) to extend its modest overnight recovery from a near three-week low. With traders now assigning over a 90% probability to a Fed rate increase in December, the US currency remains supported, limiting the upside in AUD/USD.

Fresh hopes of US-Iran peace negotiations could, however, discourage traders from taking aggressive bullish positions in the safe-haven Greenback. According to media reports, Qatar and Pakistan proposed a "middle ground" plan to the U.S. and Iran that addressed both sides’ demands. With attention still centred on developments in the Middle East crisis, caution is therefore warranted before concluding that the USD’s recent corrective retreat from its highest level since April 2025 has ended.

AUD/USD: daily price chart

Technical Outlook: Can AUD/USD Clear the Next Resistance Levels?

Having confirmed a breakout above its short-term trading range, AUD/USD is now targeting a move through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 0.7024. Further gains could meet resistance around the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7048, followed by the midpoint 50.0% retracement at 0.7064. The latter keeps the short-term outlook bearish, indicating that spot prices may find it difficult to regain the pivot zone within the wider corrective structure.

Should the pair retreat, the first support lies at the 23.6% retracement level of 0.6974. Below that, the structural floor near 0.6893 marks the area where buyers would be expected to protect the broader trading range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)