Bitcoin Price Forecast: Why has BTC slipped below $80,000 as Fed keeps rates unchanged with a hawkish tone?

• Bitcoin gives up most of its weekly advance and falls below $80,000 on Thursday following the Fed’s hawkish hold on interest rates.
• A third successive day of positive flows saw US-listed spot ETFs attract $137.33 million on Wednesday.
• Fresh indications of economic health are in focus as market participants await Thursday’s US September PCE and Q3 GDP releases.

Most of Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly advance has been wiped out as the cryptocurrency falls below $80,000 on Thursday, following a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve (Fed) despite its decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Institutional demand has nevertheless remained modest so far this week, notwithstanding the price pullback. Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted $137.33 million on Wednesday, extending their run of positive flows to three consecutive days.

Caution also prevails among traders awaiting fresh indications of economic health from the US September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, both scheduled for release later on Thursday.

Does the Fed’s rate hold leave room for further action on inflation?

At the conclusion of its two-day October policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed left its policy rate at 3.75%-4.00%, though the decision was not unanimous. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two officials seeking a 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh, meanwhile, said incoming information would guide the Fed’s assessment of whether additional action is necessary.

At his press conference, Warsh said officials have “made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

Warsh said, “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” adding: “That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit,”

Although an unchanged rate decision was already priced in, inflation concerns and the hawkish tone of the Fed’s forward guidance have reinforced market caution, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. The CME FedWatch Tool put the likelihood of tightening at the December 9 meeting at 79.6% on Thursday, a slight increase from 78.33% on Tuesday. This shift towards tighter monetary policy is lending modest support to safe-haven assets: the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above $102. Risk assets remain under pressure, with BTC falling below $80,000 on Thursday.

Even so, USD bulls appear reluctant to initiate fresh positions without further signals. Attention therefore remains on Thursday’s US releases: the Advance Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Alongside fresh indications of economic health and the monetary policy outlook, these key figures will have a major bearing on USD price movements and could help establish a directional bias for BTC.

Can modest institutional demand support Bitcoin?

A cautiously bullish tone continues to characterise institutional demand for Bitcoin. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $137.33 million on Wednesday, extending inflows to a third consecutive week. Daily inflows so far point to modest institutional buying, but their smaller scale compared with last week suggests investors remain cautious. A continuation and strengthening of these inflows this week could help BTC recover.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Can BTC find support below $80,000?

At $79,882 on Thursday, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), positioned at $77,859 and $76,432 respectively. These levels support the broader uptrend, although the 50-day EMA at $80,788 is increasingly restricting the pair’s upside.

Momentum points to consolidation with a mildly bearish bias as buyers struggle to regain the short-term average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased towards the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below zero with muted momentum.

Any move higher would first encounter resistance at the 50-day EMA near $80,788. Beyond that, the horizontal level at $85,000 could attract fresh supply if the price continues to advance.

Initial support on a decline lies at the 100-day EMA around $77,859, ahead of a lower floor at the 200-day EMA near $76,432. A daily close beneath these averages would materially undermine the current structure, paving the way for a broader correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)