Why is Bitcoin struggling to gain from US Dollar weakness as Democrats advance in US midterms?

• Mounting selling pressure pushes Bitcoin just below $76,000 on Wednesday, with its 200-day EMA near $76,501 under test.
• Uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections weighs on the US Dollar Index, which eases to 101.3 early on Wednesday.
• Early results suggest Democrats are heading for a sweeping win in both houses.

Selling pressure weighs on Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday despite a weaker US Dollar (DXY), which would usually support risk-sensitive assets. BTC trades below $76,000, down nearly 2%, as it tests the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) baseline near $76,501. The decline coincides with the US midterm elections, with early results indicating that Democrats are leading gains in both houses. 

Are Democrats heading for a sweep in the US midterms?

Democrats are leading gains in both the US Senate and the House of Representatives, according to early US midterm results. An outright majority requires Democrats to secure 218 seats in the House of Representatives and 51 in the Senate.

A Democratic sweep in these midterm elections is also supported by social sentiment. Kalshi’s forecast puts the probability of Trump losing control of both houses at 100%.

Why is a weaker US Dollar not supporting Bitcoin?

Selling pressure takes the US Dollar Index to a fresh 30-day low of 101.3 on Wednesday. Lower US Treasury yields also weigh on the US Dollar: the 2-year bond yield has declined 5 basis points (bps) to 4.566%, while the benchmark 10-year yield has fallen 6 bps to 4.90%, as reported earlier by FXStreet. The weakness coincides with uncertainty over the US midterms as Republicans lose control, leaving President Trump's fiscal and economic agenda facing gridlock.

Risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin would normally benefit from US Dollar weakness. Instead, BTC is also under selling pressure, trading below $76,000 after a 2% decline on Wednesday. The move suggests that midterm-related risks are outweighing the dollar's fall, preventing Bitcoin from benefiting from the weaker currency.

A close below the 200-day EMA at $76,500 remains a risk for BTC and could strengthen bearish control. The horizontal level near $75,545 offers immediate downside support; a break below it would bring the next bearish targets of $70,505 and $67,292 into view.

The first indication that selling pressure is easing would be a daily close above the 200-day EMA at $76,500. Further upside, however, faces stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of $79,965.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)