Bitcoin vs Gold Outlook: BTC and XAU Retreat as October US Inflation Climbs

• Bitcoin falls below $74,000 on Tuesday, with trading sentiment responding to US inflation figures.
• Gold faces corrective pressure near $4,050 as key moving averages and the dynamic SuperTrend indicator weigh on prices.
• October US CPI inflation comes in at 0.4%, exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%.

Bearish sentiment continues to dominate Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD) on Tuesday, leaving BTC around $74,000 and XAU close to $4,050. With fragile technical structures and macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on both assets, the bias remains towards further declines.

While Gold seems to be finding support at the crucial $4,000 mark, Bitcoin is still probing lower demand zones towards $70,000.

What does October’s rise in US CPI show?

Inflation in the United States (US) increased 0.4% MoM in October, according to the Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. Although below September’s 0.6% rise, the reading exceeded the market forecast of 0.3%.

At 0.3%, October’s increase in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, equalled September’s reading but was higher than the expected 0.2%.

Annual inflation readings were absent from the release, as monthly data for October 2025 were unavailable owing to the government shutdown from 1 October 2025 to 12 November 2025.

In written commentary, Joel Kruger, Global Markets Strategist at LMAX Group, said, “We see little in today’s US inflation data to materially shift the market outlook, despite the slightly hotter-than-expected readings,” and added, “With markets already pricing in a December Fed rate hike, there is limited scope for an additional hawkish repricing.”

An 87% probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates to the 4.00-4.25% range in December is priced into markets, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Rates were left unchanged in October after a 25-basis-point increase in September, the first hike in three years.

Bitcoin technical analysis: Can buyers loosen sellers’ grip?

Trading at $74,051, Bitcoin retains a bearish short-term outlook below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Overhead resistance comprises the 200-day EMA at $76,460, the 100-day EMA at $77,562 and the 50-day EMA at $79,114. As long as the pair stays beneath this layered barrier, recovery attempts are likely to face limits.

Caution is also warranted by the momentum indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits beneath both its signal line and zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 35. Together, these readings suggest continued downward pressure without yet signalling extreme oversold conditions.

For buyers, the first upside obstacle is the 200-day EMA near $76,460, ahead of the 100-day EMA at approximately $77,562 and the 50-day EMA around $79,114. Reclaiming this concentrated overhead supply zone would be necessary to neutralise the prevailing downtrend.

In assessing downside protection, structural demand is visible only at a much higher level: the SuperTrend reading around $81,208. Sitting well above the spot price, it will become relevant only if BTC mounts a broader recovery. Until that happens, remaining below the daily EMA cluster leaves the pair exposed to additional losses.

Gold technical analysis: Can XAU stem losses as selling pressure builds?

A bearish short-term bias persists in Gold at $4,055, with prices below a concentrated zone of moving averages and trend resistance. The 50-day EMA around $4,150 remains above the metal, followed by the 100-day and 200-day EMAs near $4,229 and $4,257, respectively. These levels reinforce the broader ceiling, alongside an active descending resistance trendline whose breakout level is considerably higher, around $4,337.

Above the spot price, a SuperTrend signal near $4,163 further suggests that any rebound remains corrective within a structure that limits gains. Although the MACD has moved into positive territory and the RSI sits just under 50, these signals point to modest stabilisation in momentum, not a clear reversal to a bullish trend.

To relieve immediate downward pressure, buyers would first need to overcome the supply cluster formed by the 50-day EMA around $4,150 and the nearby SuperTrend barrier near $4,163. Further up, a broader resistance zone spans the 100-day EMA at approximately $4,229 and the 200-day EMA near $4,257. The descending resistance trendline’s breakout price around $4,337 represents a more decisive medium-term obstacle; reclaiming it would be necessary to overturn the prevailing bearish outlook. The supplied daily chart levels offer no identifiable support nearby. Consequently, renewed weakness below $4,055 would expose Gold to further declines until a fresh demand zone takes shape on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)