Cardano Price Forecast: Can ADA defend key support as bearish pressure intensifies?

• Buyers defending support at $0.1894 help steady Cardano’s ongoing decline on Monday, with the token trading just below $0.20.
• Whale activity remains subdued, on-chain figures indicate, even as a jump in social dominance points to growing discussion.
• Retail demand appears to be weakening as ADA futures Open Interest slips from 2.25 billion ADA last week to almost 2 billion ADA.

Selling pressure on Cardano (ADA) is easing on Monday, with the token consolidating above support at $0.1894 after losing roughly 8% last Thursday. Although discussion around Cardano has increased, on-chain figures indicate lower activity among large-wallet investors, often known as whales. A slowdown in retail participation is also evident in derivatives data: Open Interest has declined from 2.25 billion ADA last week to almost 2 billion ADA.

With selling pressure building, ADA’s technical outlook remains tilted towards the downside.

Are Cardano whales pausing as retail demand fades?

At 2.49% on Monday, Cardano’s social dominance score reaches its highest level since late June. The increase is linked to no ADA or Midnight (ADA) tokens having been stolen in the Binance hack. 

Following last month’s sell-off, however, Cardano whales have paused. According to Santiment, investors holding 10 million to 100 million now account for 37.45% of circulating supply, compared with 38.03% last month. This reduction suggests waning risk appetite among the largest holders. At the same time, the share of ADA supply in profit has fallen to 14.77% from 28.36%, pointing to a wave of profit-taking. Further reductions in whale holdings this month could deepen ADA’s 21% losses from October.

Retail support for Cardano is weakening as well. With ADA futures Open Interest declining from 2.25 billion ADA last week to almost 2 billion ADA, CoinGlass figures suggest traders are exiting positions rather than taking on fresh exposure.

Technical outlook: Can Cardano avoid further losses?

After shedding 21% last month, Cardano remains below $0.2000 on Monday. Trading beneath its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $0.2179 and $0.2408 respectively, ADA retains a bearish near-term bias.

A move back beneath the earlier rising support line around $0.2019 signals a bearish reversal for the altcoin. ADA nevertheless remains above support at $0.1894, established by the 30 August low, leaving the way open towards the 18 August and 27 July lows of $0.1712 and $0.1537, respectively.

On the daily chart, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 32 points to continued downside pressure and weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading is also negative, remaining below zero.

Any recovery first faces resistance around $0.2019, where the former trendline broke, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.2179. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $0.2408 strengthens the broader bearish ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)