Dogecoin Price Forecast: Could ETF outflows and long unwinding push DOGE lower?

• Further losses in Dogecoin pause near $0.075 on Friday, following a decline of over 5% a day earlier.
• Institutional appetite appears to be weakening as DOGE-focused ETFs registered outflows of $138,570 on Thursday, their second straight day of withdrawals.
• Heavy liquidations of long positions accompany a 5% fall in Open Interest over the past 24 hours, with derivatives indicators pointing to a bias towards selling.

Selling pressure on Dogecoin (DOGE) eases on Friday, with the price holding near $0.0756 at the time of writing after a loss of over 5% the day before. Demand for the meme coin has weakened among institutional and retail participants alike: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen withdrawals of more than $500,000 this week, while futures Open Interest is moving lower towards $1 billion. Technical indicators retain a bearish bias, pointing to potential downside of roughly 10% towards the annual low of $0.0676.

What is driving selling pressure in Dogecoin ETFs and futures?

Weakening demand from both retail and institutional investors presents a challenge for Dogecoin. According to SoSoValue, DOGE ETFs saw withdrawals of $138,570 on Thursday after $399,460 a day earlier. The second successive day of outflows took this week’s cumulative withdrawals to $538,030. ETF outflows generally suggest that institutional investors are redeeming shares, reflecting either profit-booking or, in DOGE’s case, growing pressure on holders to exit.

Among retail participants, caution over broader market uncertainties is reflected in a decline in the notional value of outstanding positions. CoinGlass data puts DOGE futures Open Interest (OI) at $1.05 billion, down over 5% in the past 24 hours. A simultaneous fall in OI and the spot price generally signals a selling bias among traders, potentially sustaining corrections over the short to medium term.

Liquidations over the same period totalled $18.67 million, of which $12.81 million came from long positions. These forced closures further underline the increasing bearish pressure on bullish positions.

Technical outlook: Is another lower low ahead for DOGE?

 Having rebounded from an intraday low of $0.0722, Dogecoin is holding above $0.0750 at the time of writing on Friday. Its near-term outlook remains bearish, however, as the meme coin trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.0833 and the 200-day EMA of $0.0922.

Downside momentum is suggested by both key daily-chart indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 35, sits close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below its signal line in negative territory.

A confirmed break below horizontal support at $0.0776, established by the June 6 low, leaves the meme coin exposed to its next significant support near the previous swing low of $0.0677. A breach of that level would indicate a deeper correction. Using the Fibonacci retracement of the preceding upswing from $0.0676 to $0.01058, subsequent support could lie at the 127.2% and 161.8% extension levels of $0.0598 and $0.0513, respectively.

Any recovery would first face resistance around the horizontal level of $0.0776. Beyond that lies a resistance cluster comprising the 50-day EMA at $0.0833 and the 50% retracement at $0.0846; a move back above this cluster would be needed to relieve immediate selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)