EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Can the pair reclaim 0.8400 after reaching oversold levels?

Recovery gains in EUR/USD remain restricted below 0.8400 after a rebound from 17-month lows around 0.8370.
Euro gains are likely to remain constrained by elevated oil prices and worries over France's fiscal position.
Sterling retains its strength, with recent UK economic releases supporting expectations of a November rate increase by the BoE.

A modest recovery is taking shape in the Euro (EUR) against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, though the EUR/GBP pair remains below 0.8400. Trading near 0.8390, the pair has recovered from Wednesday's fresh 17-month lows around 0.8370. The correction follows a sell-off of more than 2.7% from late September highs, which drove the Relative Strength Index deep into oversold territory across most timeframes.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Improved market sentiment is lending some support to the Euro on Thursday. Nevertheless, elevated oil prices, persistent worries over France’s fiscal problems and the government’s struggle to address them are likely to restrict the pair’s recovery.

Sterling, by contrast, is likely to retain its strength. Wednesday's elevated UK inflation readings, together with last week's positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, have cleared the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates at its November meeting.

Further clues on next month's meeting may emerge when BoE Governor Andrew Bailey addresses the press later in the day. In Europe, Fabio Panetta, a European Central Bank (ECB) official and Governor of the Bank of Italy, is due to speak before the European Commission publishes its preliminary Consumer Confidence report.

Technical Analysis: Is this a dead cat bounce?

Four consecutive weeks of depreciation leave the broader EUR/GBP downtrend unchanged, with the pair trading at 0.8393. A modest corrective rebound is under way as the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers from deeply oversold territory, but the indicator is still below 40. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly positive, the overall technical picture indicates that rallies are likely to attract selling.

Wednesday's high around 0.8400 marks the first resistance, with the October 19 and 20 peaks near 0.8430 providing the next hurdle. A break below Wednesday's low around 0.8373 would bring the May 2025 low near 0.8355 into focus, followed by the April 2025 trough around 0.8320.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar today. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.10%	-0.61%	-0.15%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.38%
EUR	0.13%		0.01%	-0.51%	-0.06%	0.33%	0.26%	-0.28%
GBP	0.10%	-0.01%		-0.53%	-0.09%	0.30%	0.22%	-0.29%
JPY	0.61%	0.51%	0.53%		0.45%	0.82%	0.72%	0.23%
CAD	0.15%	0.06%	0.09%	-0.45%		0.37%	0.30%	-0.22%
AUD	-0.20%	-0.33%	-0.30%	-0.82%	-0.37%		-0.09%	-0.59%
NZD	-0.13%	-0.26%	-0.22%	-0.72%	-0.30%	0.09%		-0.48%
CHF	0.38%	0.28%	0.29%	-0.23%	0.22%	0.59%	0.48%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, selecting the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the intersecting cell.