EUR/JPY Price Forecast: What next as pair hovers near 176.50 above nine-day EMA?

• Immediate support could come under pressure in EUR/JPY, with the nine-day EMA at 176.33 the next potential test.
• Upside momentum remains weak, as reflected in the 14-day Relative Strength Index reading of 42.64.
• Near 178.00, the descending channel’s upper boundary presents the first major hurdle.

A bearish bias continues to dominate EUR/JPY despite its recovery from the previous trading day’s losses. The cross is trading higher around 176.40 during Monday’s Asian session, but the descending channel on the daily chart points to a clearly negative technical outlook.

Trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps the near-term outlook for EUR/JPY bearish. With the price only slightly above the nine-day EMA, signs of stabilisation remain limited. Meanwhile, a reading of 42.64 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), below the neutral 50 mark, signals muted upward momentum rather than a convincing recovery.

At 176.33, the nine-day EMA offers immediate support that EUR/JPY may test. Below that, attention would turn to the 12-month low of 175.07 recorded on 30 October, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary around 174.40. A breach of that boundary would clear the way for the cross to move towards the region of its 15-month low at 169.72.

A move higher could take EUR/JPY towards the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.00, with the 50-day EMA at 178.79 the next hurdle. Clearing this medium-term moving average successfully would trigger a bullish reversal and support a move towards the all-time high of 187.95 set on 17 April.

Can the Dollar withstand the tech rout as the Fed stays hawkish?

Near-term pressure on the Dollar is likely to persist as the tech sell-off continues, according to Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad, with “the USD index (DXY) likely to test support at 101.00.” He nevertheless emphasises that “strong US economic activity and rising price pressures reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias, keeping rate differentials supportive of USD,” indicating that underlying macroeconomic and policy support may limit the Dollar’s downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)