EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Pullback from descending channel top leaves pair below 177.50

A test of key support at the nine-day EMA of 176.78 may be ahead for EUR/JPY.
Momentum remains neutral, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 49.37.
Near 178.00, the descending channel’s upper boundary marks the main resistance.

Bearish sentiment continues to shape EUR/JPY as the cross retreats following two days of gains, changing hands near 177.40 in Wednesday’s Asian session. Daily-chart technical analysis points to the pair staying inside a descending channel, signalling that the broader bias remains bearish.

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With EUR/JPY positioned between its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the near-term outlook remains neutral, though upside potential is somewhat constrained. Just beneath the price, the nine-period EMA provides immediate support; above it, the 50-period EMA forms the first significant resistance. Following the recent recovery from the mid-175s, momentum appears balanced, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading 49.37, close to its midpoint.

For EUR/JPY, the nine-day EMA at 176.78 may offer the first line of support. Below this lies the 12-month low of 175.07 recorded on 30 October, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary near 174.30. Should the cross breach that boundary, a move towards the region of the 15-month low at 169.72 would become possible.

A move higher may first bring EUR/JPY up against the descending channel’s upper boundary around 178.00, with the 50-day EMA at 178.70 the next hurdle. Clearing this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal and support a move towards the area of the all-time high of 187.95 set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: What Does the Daily Chart Indicate?

Is Japan’s readiness to intervene sharpening policy vigilance over the Yen?

Japan’s growing policy vigilance is in focus for Commerzbank analysts, who note that Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has "signaled readiness to intervene in currency markets if movements become disorderly." Her position highlights the authorities’ sensitivity to possible episodes of excessive Yen volatility. It also strengthens the view that policymakers are willing to intervene if market conditions become destabilising.

Can Japan’s warning against speculative moves keep the Yen steady?

As the Yen steadies, Commerzbank analysts point to the particularly firm stance taken by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on the currency’s recent moves. She warned: “If there are disorderly movements or excessively speculative moves, we will take action.” According to the bank, the direct threat of intervention reflects greater official sensitivity to FX volatility, reinforcing the view that authorities are ready to respond should JPY price movements become destabilising.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro’s weakest performance today was against the Japanese Yen. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.32%	-0.26%	-0.49%	-0.24%	-0.17%	0.26%	-0.47%
EUR	0.32%		0.06%	-0.16%	0.06%	0.14%	0.57%	-0.15%
GBP	0.26%	-0.06%		-0.23%	0.02%	0.10%	0.51%	-0.21%
JPY	0.49%	0.16%	0.23%		0.24%	0.31%	0.72%	0.00%
CAD	0.24%	-0.06%	-0.02%	-0.24%		0.07%	0.49%	-0.23%
AUD	0.17%	-0.14%	-0.10%	-0.31%	-0.07%		0.41%	-0.30%
NZD	-0.26%	-0.57%	-0.51%	-0.72%	-0.49%	-0.41%		-0.71%
CHF	0.47%	0.15%	0.21%	-0.01%	0.23%	0.30%	0.71%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read EUR (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the Euro on the left and follow its row horizontally to the US Dollar; the cell at their intersection gives the percentage change for that pair.