EUR/USD Price Forecast: Will 1.1115-1.1110 Support Give Way as Bears Await a Break and ECB Stays in Focus?

• Renewed selling pressure weighs on EUR/USD in Asian trade as USD demand picks up modestly.
• Ahead of the ECB meeting, the Euro faces additional pressure from France’s fiscal troubles and political impasse.
• With the technical setup bearish, a break below 1.1115-1.1110 should open the door to steeper declines.

Renewed selling pressure on EUR/USD during Thursday’s Asian session interrupts the previous day’s modest rebound from the 1.1110 area, its lowest level since May 2025, as some buying interest returns to the US Dollar (USD). Further movement in spot prices remains limited, however, with traders staying on the sidelines before a key central bank decision and important US economic releases.

France’s mounting debt and political impasse ahead of next year’s election could keep the shared currency under pressure as markets await the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision later today. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged while retaining a hawkish stance towards a possible 25-basis-point (bps) increase in December. Meanwhile, hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside geopolitical uncertainty, are helping the USD regain momentum. Together, these factors suggest that EUR/USD’s path of least resistance is still lower.

The technical picture also favours near-term downside, with spot prices trading below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the -hour chart. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has improved marginally, with its line edging into positive territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40.2 continues to indicate subdued upside momentum. These signals reinforce the bearish outlook. Sellers may nevertheless wait for a break beneath the 1.1115-1.1110 zone before positioning for a continuation of the established downtrend seen over roughly the past two months.

For signs of a base forming or the bearish sequence continuing, traders are likely to watch intraday price swings near 1.1140. Any recovery attempt is likely to encounter its first resistance before the 1.1200 round figure, followed by the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Only sustained gains above that level would relieve the prevailing downside pressure and make room for a more constructive recovery phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

What does the EUR/USD 4-hour chart signal?