EUR/USD Price Forecast: Can bulls secure a breakout above range-top resistance at 1.1270?

EUR/USD retains an upward bias for a second consecutive day as broad-based USD weakness lends support.
The Euro and EUR/USD draw further support from strong Eurozone CPI, which reinforced expectations of an ECB rate hike.
Further upside needs confirmation from a break above the trading range that has held for a month.

Positive sentiment towards EUR/USD extends into a second consecutive day on Thursday, leaving the pair near the almost one-week high reached a day earlier. During Asian trading, it is hovering around 1.1265.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Pressure on the US Dollar (USD) has pushed it to its lowest level since late September. A Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections has fuelled concerns over fiscal gridlock that could constrain government spending and slow economic growth. At the same time, optimism about an end to the Iran war is pulling crude oil prices lower, alleviating inflation concerns and prompting another fall in US bond yields. These developments are outweighing expectations of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, keeping the dollar under pressure and, in turn, providing support to EUR/USD.

Support for the single currency also comes from stronger expectations of a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate increase by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December. Those expectations gathered pace after Wednesday's data showed annual headline inflation in the Eurozone climbing to 4.0% in October, its highest level in three years. This is reinforcing the bullish bias in EUR/USD. Nevertheless, France’s mounting debt and political deadlock could discourage Euro bulls from taking aggressive positions, potentially limiting the pair’s additional upside.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD remains above its 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), although buyers are still waiting for a break above resistance at 1.1270, the upper edge of a month-long range. Near-term momentum signals remain favourable: the Relative Strength Index is in bullish territory, just short of overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains positive. Together, these indicators suggest buyers continue to hold the upper hand.

A failure to clear that resistance, however, would point to weakening bullish momentum and pull EUR/USD below 1.1200. Sustained trading beneath this level could bring the bottom of the range, around 1.1120-1.1110, into focus. A decisive break below that zone would provide a fresh trigger for bearish traders, paving the way for a continuation of the established downtrend seen over roughly the past two months.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD: What does the 4-hour chart show?

How Is the US Dollar Performing Today?

The US Dollar performed best against the Australian Dollar today. The table below sets out the percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.31%	-0.16%	-0.36%	-0.07%	-0.06%	-0.44%	-0.38%
EUR	0.31%		0.14%	-0.05%	0.25%	0.23%	-0.14%	-0.09%
GBP	0.16%	-0.14%		-0.19%	0.10%	0.10%	-0.27%	-0.23%
JPY	0.36%	0.05%	0.19%		0.27%	0.30%	-0.09%	-0.03%
CAD	0.07%	-0.25%	-0.10%	-0.27%		0.03%	-0.35%	-0.30%
AUD	0.06%	-0.23%	-0.10%	-0.30%	-0.03%		-0.36%	-0.32%
NZD	0.44%	0.14%	0.27%	0.09%	0.35%	0.36%		0.08%
CHF	0.38%	0.09%	0.23%	0.03%	0.30%	0.32%	-0.08%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.